📊 Mid-Month Pulse: ...NORDFX Global님의 글

17 Nov 2025, 21:56 · Views 1,046

📊 Mid-Month Pulse: USD vs Emerging Markets 🌍💵 The middle of November brings fresh volatility to FX markets as the US dollar holds firm and emerging-market currencies try to stabilise. The latest data show the nominal trade-weighted dollar index against EM economies rising to 132.08 in October from 131.86, while the real index climbed to 107.16. The DXY is trading near 99.38, reflecting a cautious but steady dollar tone. 🌐 EM currencies have shown only modest gains. The broader EM currency basket is stabilising rather than rallying, as many economies face slower growth while external pressure from a firm dollar persists. ⚡ What traders should watch now: A stronger US inflation or labour print could lift the dollar further and weigh on EM assets, while softer readings may give EM currencies some breathing room. With the dollar steady and EM momentum muted, volatility can create short-term opportunities but also raises risk. 🎯 Bottom line: We’re in a balanced but fragile phase. The dollar is stable, EM currencies are holding but not breaking out, and the next big move will likely follow upcoming US data. 👉 Ready to trade the moves? Join NordFX here: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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PCE and GDP Day: What Growth and Inflation Together Tell Forex Traders | NordFX Today the US drops two heavyweight reports back to back: the third estimate of Q1 2026 GDP and the May Personal Income and Outlays report, home to the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, PCE. 📊 GDP growth was already revised down to 1.6% annualized in the second estimate, from 2.0% at the advance reading, on weaker consumer spending and investment. Since consumption drives nearly 70% of GDP, today's number is a real time read on how stretched US households are. Inflation has been climbing, not cooling. April's PCE ran 3.8% year over year, core at 3.3%, both well above the Fed's 2% target. Economists expect May's print to push higher, toward roughly 4.1% headline, the hottest since 2023, driven largely by the oil shock from the Israel Iran war that began in late February. 🛢️ There is a silver lining: crude has dropped sharply this week, with WTI near $70 and Brent near $73.50, the lowest since the war started, as ceasefire talks edge forward, though still fragile, with flashpoints in Lebanon and around the Strait of Hormuz. A cooler May reading would ease pressure on the Fed. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in his first meeting on June 17, a fourth straight hold, but dropped dovish forward guidance. Half the committee now sees a hike by year end, and futures markets price roughly 70% odds of one by September. 🏦 That tension is exactly why today matters for FX. A hot PCE plus solid GDP would push the dollar, already near a one year high, even further, with EUR/USD pinned near 1.136 and gold sliding toward $4,000. A cooler surprise could spark a relief rally in EUR, GBP and gold, especially with sterling already weak on UK political turmoil. Expect a volatile session either way. ⚡ Open your NordFX account: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... 🚀

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🌅 NordFX Morning Update – June 17, 2026 📊 Asia-Pacific: Mostly higher. Nikkei 225 near record highs (~70,000), up ~0.6% on chip and industrial strength after strong May exports. Kospi flat, pausing after recent chip-stock swings. Singapore's Straits Times hit a record on its best non-oil export growth in 20 years. ASX 200 and China's CSI 300 edged up; Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng dipped on soft Chinese data. 💴 FX: US Dollar Index flat, near a 10-day low. USD/JPY near 160.30 even after the BOJ's 25bp hike to 1% (a 30-year high) – yen capped by the wide US–Japan rate gap. AUD/USD steady after the RBA held at 4.35%. EUR/USD and GBP/USD broadly steady near 1.16 and 1.34. 🥇 Commodities: Gold up ~0.3% to ~$4,343/oz, extending a 5th straight day of gains on safe-haven and rate-cut hopes. Silver firmer near $70.5. Brent near $78, WTI near $75, as the US–Iran Hormuz deal eases supply fears. 🏦 Today's focus: FOMC decision tonight – Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. Rates expected to hold, eyes on the dot plot and press conference. Also watch US retail sales and Eurozone CPI. 🕊️ Backdrop: US–Iran interim deal signing set for Friday in Switzerland, reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trade smart with NordFX! 📈

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🟢 NordFX Morning Update – June 25, 2026 🌏 Asia: Tech roared back overnight after blowout Micron earnings and a bullish Qualcomm forecast eased AI-bubble fears. Nikkei 225 jumped 4.0%, Kospi surged 5.2%, led by SK Hynix (+11%) and Samsung (+5%). Hang Seng slipped 1.0% on profit-taking, ASX 200 -0.3% despite strong May jobs data (+40.3K, unemployment down to 4.4%). CSI 300 and Nifty 50 both opened higher. 💵 FX: Dollar near 13-month highs on growing Fed rate-hike bets. EUR/USD broke below 1.14, now around 1.135-1.14. USD/JPY sits near 161.7, close to a four-decade high. 🥇 Gold dipped under $4,000/oz overnight – a 7-month low – before steadying near $4,000-4,010 as the stronger dollar and hawkish Fed outlook weigh on bullion. 🛢 Oil: WTI ~$69, Brent ~$73, both near pre-war lows as Strait of Hormuz traffic keeps normalizing. 📊 Big data day ahead: US Final Q1 GDP, jobless claims, durable goods orders, and Core PCE (the Fed's key inflation gauge) all land at 8:30 AM ET today. Markets are pricing rising odds of a Fed hike later this year under new Chair Kevin Warsh – a sharp turn from earlier rate-cut talk. Stay sharp out there! 💪 #NordFX #Forex #Gold #Oil #MarketUpdate

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NordFX Weekly Forex Forecast: After the Fed - Dollar, Gold and Oil into PCE Week The Fed just reset the playbook, and markets are still adjusting. Here's what matters this week. 👇 🏦 Fed: Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair held rates at 3.50-3.75%, but the dot plot flipped hawkish, with the 2026 median jumping to 3.8%. A hike by September or October is now firmly on the table. 💵 Dollar: DXY is near 100.8, its strongest level in about a year, gaining broadly. EUR/USD sits near 1.15-1.16, USD/JPY is testing the 160-161 zone where BoJ intervention risk rises. 💴 🥇 Gold: Slid to ~$4,150 last week (third straight weekly loss) as the hawkish Fed and stronger dollar weighed on demand. Goldman cut its year-end target to $4,900. It's since bounced to ~$4,190-4,200 on renewed US-Iran talk headlines. Stuck between Fed pressure and safe-haven bids. ⚖️ 🛢️ Oil: Brent near $80, WTI near $77-78. Crude dropped sharply on Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes, then bounced again after Friday's Geneva talks were cancelled and Monday brought reports of fresh progress. Headline-driven and choppy. 🌍 🇬🇧 Political wildcard: UK PM Starmer reportedly preparing an exit, with Andy Burnham tipped as successor. GBP/USD is trading defensively near 1.32-1.33. 🧩 📅 Next up: Thursday's PCE report, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. A hot print cements the hawkish pivot; a soft one could spark a fast dollar unwind. 📊 Levels: DXY 99.8-101.5 | EUR/USD 1.145-1.165 | GBP/USD 1.31-1.335 | USD/JPY 158.5-161.5 | XAU/USD 4,100-4,250 | Brent 78-83 Trade smart and stay close to the calendar this week. 🚀 👉 Open your account with NordFX: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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