📅 Economic Calendar...NORDFX Global님의 글

13 Nov 2025, 16:40 · Views 729

📅 Economic Calendar – 13.11.2025 Futures in Europe and the US trade slightly higher this morning 📈 as markets react to the end of the 🇺🇸 US government shutdown, which lasted a record 43 days. Federal agencies are now returning to normal operation, and September’s delayed BLS data should be released soon. A temporary budget agreement will keep the government funded until the end of January. Today traders will watch a packed macro agenda 🔍, including 🇬🇧 UK GDP for September and Q3, 🇪🇺 eurozone industrial production, the 🇺🇸 Cleveland Fed index, 🇳🇿 New Zealand manufacturing PMI, the latest IEA report, and speeches from central bankers across the BoE, Fed, ECB and SNB. Corporate earnings from Burberry, Siemens, Sabadell, Applied Materials, Disney, JD.com and Bilibili will also draw attention. 🕒 Key events (BST): 🇨🇭 08:30 – Switzerland PPI (October) 🇪🇺 11:00 – Eurozone industrial production (September) 🇺🇸 13:00 – FOMC Daly speaks 🇺🇸 15:30 – FOMC Kashkari speaks 🇺🇸 18:00 – EIA crude oil inventories Stay alert and follow the market moves with NordFX! 📊🌍

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PCE and GDP Day: What Growth and Inflation Together Tell Forex Traders | NordFX Today the US drops two heavyweight reports back to back: the third estimate of Q1 2026 GDP and the May Personal Income and Outlays report, home to the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, PCE. 📊 GDP growth was already revised down to 1.6% annualized in the second estimate, from 2.0% at the advance reading, on weaker consumer spending and investment. Since consumption drives nearly 70% of GDP, today's number is a real time read on how stretched US households are. Inflation has been climbing, not cooling. April's PCE ran 3.8% year over year, core at 3.3%, both well above the Fed's 2% target. Economists expect May's print to push higher, toward roughly 4.1% headline, the hottest since 2023, driven largely by the oil shock from the Israel Iran war that began in late February. 🛢️ There is a silver lining: crude has dropped sharply this week, with WTI near $70 and Brent near $73.50, the lowest since the war started, as ceasefire talks edge forward, though still fragile, with flashpoints in Lebanon and around the Strait of Hormuz. A cooler May reading would ease pressure on the Fed. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in his first meeting on June 17, a fourth straight hold, but dropped dovish forward guidance. Half the committee now sees a hike by year end, and futures markets price roughly 70% odds of one by September. 🏦 That tension is exactly why today matters for FX. A hot PCE plus solid GDP would push the dollar, already near a one year high, even further, with EUR/USD pinned near 1.136 and gold sliding toward $4,000. A cooler surprise could spark a relief rally in EUR, GBP and gold, especially with sterling already weak on UK political turmoil. Expect a volatile session either way. ⚡ Open your NordFX account: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... 🚀

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🌅 NordFX Morning Update – June 18, 2026 📉 Wall Street recap: US stocks fell after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC press conference turned hawkish. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% (unanimous 12–0), but the dot plot lifted the 2026 median rate projection to ~3.8% from 3.4%, with 2026 PCE inflation forecasts jumping to 3.6%. Dow –0.98% to 51,492.55, S&P 500 –1.21% to 7,420.10, Nasdaq –1.34% to 26,021.66. 🌏 Asian markets: Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped +1.8%, breaking above 71,000 for the first time ever, even after the BoJ hiked rates to 1.0% earlier this week – the highest since 1995. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is down around –0.7%, China's CSI 300 is roughly flat, and Australia's ASX 200 slipped –0.3%. 🕊️ Geopolitics: Trump and Iran's president signed an MOU Wednesday extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal ceremony still due Friday in Switzerland. This is easing safe-haven demand and pressuring the dollar into Thursday's session. 💱 FX: The dollar has pulled back from Wednesday's post-Fed highs. USD/JPY holds near 160.50–161.00 (highest since mid-2024), EUR/USD is back near 1.1600, and GBP/USD recovered above 1.3300 after touching a 2-month low – all eyes on the Bank of England decision at noon GMT (a hold at 3.75% is expected). AUD/USD is edging higher near 0.7070. 🥇 Commodities: Gold rebounded above $4,300/oz after Wednesday's Fed-driven slide, as the weaker dollar offsets the hawkish rate outlook. Oil is softer – WTI near $75.5, Brent near $79 – on expectations that the Hormuz reopening will bring more supply back online. 👀 Today's watch: BoE rate decision at noon GMT, plus continued market digestion of the Fed's hawkish pivot versus easing Middle East risk. #NordFX #ForexNews #MarketUpdate

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🩺 NordFX MARKET AUTOPSY: The Swiss Franc Shock of 2015 Today's Juneteenth holiday shuts US stocks and bonds. FX stays open — but with US banks closed, liquidity runs thin. That's the exact condition that turned one Thursday into a legend. Jan 15, 2015: the SNB scrapped its 3-year-old 1.20 EUR/CHF floor with zero warning. The pair fell from 1.20 toward 0.85 in minutes — a 30% move in a "boring" currency. Stops didn't fire at their levels; they filled wherever the next price was. That's gap risk: the market jumps over your stop instead of through it. Lesson: leverage doesn't know about gaps, and a central bank's promise isn't a fundamental — it's a belief that can vanish in one press release. On thin-liquidity days like today: - Size for the gap, not the candle - Confirm negative balance protection - Cut leverage around holidays/macro events - No currency is "risk-free" just because it's quiet 👉 Register: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... Trading FX involves substantial risk of loss. Not financial advice. #MarketAutopsy #NordFX #SNB #CHF #RiskManagement #Juneteenth

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📊 NordFX Crypto Weekly (Jun 17-24) 🏦 Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%, hawkish dot plot (3.8% for 2026) sends BTC to $62-64K, ~$2T wiped off markets 🤝 US-Iran peace deal eases risk 🏛️ CLARITY Act still short ~7 Dem votes 🗳️ Crypto PACs spend $8M+ in US primaries 🎉 KuCoin Pay now lets you scan and pay in crypto at everyday checkouts in Argentina & Peru (Mercado Pago, Yape, Plin) 💧 USDT+USDC liquidity at $260B, lowest since March

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NFP Before a Holiday: Why Thin Liquidity Can Amplify the Dollar Move | NordFX Insight June's jobs report lands today, July 2, a day early since Friday, July 3 is a US market holiday ahead of Independence Day 📅 That pushes the market's biggest data point straight into a shortened, thin-liquidity session, and that combination tends to exaggerate whatever the headline says. The setup ADP's private payrolls came in at +98K for June, below May's +122K. Consensus for today's official NFP sits around 100K-115K, down from May's strong +172K beat, with unemployment risk tilted toward ticking up to 4.4% from 4.3%. Wage growth has been running near 3.4% YoY. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has scrapped traditional forward guidance, and markets have flipped from pricing cuts to pricing hike risk this year, largely on oil-driven inflation tied to Iran tensions. That's a real regime shift from where 2026 began. USD and gold right now The dollar is firm and near multi-month highs on hawkish Fed bets 💵 Gold has been volatile, breaking below $4,000 earlier this week to an eight-month low before rebounding to around $4,050-4,075 as of today, still capped by resistance near $4,100. A strong payrolls print likely pressures gold and lifts USD further; a soft one could spark a sharp reversal in both. Why the holiday matters With Friday closed, desks thin out early and order books get shallow ⚠️ The same surprise that moves USD pairs 40-50 pips on a normal day can easily go further today, and gold tends to see the same amplification, especially with Strait of Hormuz risk and Trump's tariff threats still simmering in the background 🌍 Bottom line Hawkish Fed repricing + thin holiday liquidity = bigger swings on smaller catalysts. Wider stops and smaller size are the sensible playbook into this print 🎯 Trade the reaction, not the guess. Open an account with NordFX 🚀 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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