💵 Dollar Correction...NORDFX Global님의 글

03 Nov 2025, 21:21 · Views 120

💵 Dollar Correction or New Rally Ahead of CPI? The dollar starts the week near a 3-month high, with the DXY hovering close to the 100.00 psychological mark as traders balance growth worries and expectations for future Fed rate cuts. The next US CPI (October reading) will be released on Thursday, 13 November, at 08:30 ET, and markets are already positioning ahead of it. 🏭 Macro snapshot: • ISM Manufacturing remains near contraction levels at 49.4, showing some improvement. • S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in October, signalling expansion. • The 10-year Treasury yield holds steady around 4.08 %, keeping the dollar supported. 🪙 Market outlook into CPI: • Base case – Range trading with a bullish tilt. DXY resistance lies near 100.00, and dips may remain shallow while yields stay firm. • Hot CPI (above consensus) – USD could break higher, gold may come under pressure, and risk currencies like AUD or EUR could retreat. • Soft CPI (below consensus) – USD may correct lower toward recent support, while gold and stocks might rebound. 🕒 Before CPI: Watch the ISM Services data and yield-curve shifts. Any sustained move in 10-year yields could steer DXY momentum. ⚠️ Reminder: CPI releases often bring volatility and wider spreads. Use alerts, manage risk carefully, and consider pending orders. Ready to trade the next USD move? Join here 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... 🚀

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📊 NordFX Insight: Industrial Production and Import Prices – How Real Economy Data Moves FX Two "boring" US reports are quietly steering the dollar right now. Here's why they deserve your attention. 🧵 🏭 Industrial Production Output from factories, mines and utilities has been choppy in 2026: down 0.5% in March, up 0.9% in April, then just +0.1% in May, missing forecasts. Capacity utilization sits around 76%, still below its long-run average. Verdict: the industrial economy isn't overheating. 💵 Import Prices Here trade policy hits the data directly. Import prices rose 1.9% in May after 2.0% in April, lifting the annual rate to 6.7%, the fastest in years. Air freight import costs alone jumped nearly 28% year over year. The cause: a wave of new tariffs, including a 10% global surcharge, Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum and copper, plus fresh Section 301 measures, has pushed the average US tariff rate above 9%. 📦 🌍 Why It Matters for FX Soft output plus rising import costs is a tricky mix for the Fed: not clean growth, not clean disinflation, more like stagflation-style pressure, and that keeps rate expectations volatile. Layer on today's backdrop: renewed US strikes on Iran, energy market jitters, and a new Fed chair steering policy, and you get a dollar that jumps on every print. DXY has been oscillating near 100-101 this month, while EUR/USD pushed back above 1.14 as traders trim Fed hike bets and lean into ECB tightening expectations. 📉📈 🎯 Bottom Line Industrial production shows how strong the real economy is. Import prices show how much tariffs and supply chains are adding to inflation. Together they shape the Fed's next move, and that move ripples through every major currency pair. 💡 Ready to trade the next big data-driven swing? Open your account with NordFX 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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🌅 NordFX Morning Update – July 17, 2026 📉 Asia: Nikkei plunged another 3%+, breaking below 65,000 for the first time in a month as the AI/chip selloff deepens. Hang Seng held flat near 25,000, decoupling from Tokyo's rout. Mainland China stayed soft on growth concerns. 🛢️ Oil: WTI ~$79, Brent ~$85 – near one-month highs as US–Iran tensions keep the Strait of Hormuz risk premium elevated. 🥇 Gold: XAU/USD near $3,980, still under $4,000 and headed for a 3%+ weekly loss as yields and a firmer dollar weigh. 💱 FX: EUR/USD steady around 1.1470–1.1475. 🇺🇸 US: Fed holding a cautious tone ahead of the July 29 decision. Today's watch: University of Michigan inflation expectations. ⚠️ Volatility is elevated – trade with caution and manage risk. 📊 Trade smart with NordFX!

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📉 NordFX Insight: Quiet Markets Can Be the Most Expensive Ones US markets are closed for Independence Day, summer volume is thinning fast, and the tape looks sleepy. Don't be fooled. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh just dropped forward guidance entirely, meaning the Fed is now flying on pure data, and the next surprise print could hit a market with almost nobody standing on the other side of the trade to absorb it. ⚠️ Three numbers that matter right now 🔸 3.50 to 3.75%, the Fed's current rate range, held steady in June with zero guidance on what's next 🔸 4.2%, the annual CPI increase through May, the sharpest 12-month jump since April 2023 🔸 July 24, the expiry date for the temporary 10% US tariff surcharge, already ruled unlawful by the Court of International Trade in May, still tangled in appeal Any one of these can turn a dead Tuesday into a 100 pip afternoon. 📊 Why thin markets bite harder When institutional desks step back for summer, retail and algo flow fill the gap. That flow doesn't add stability, it adds acceleration. A single tariff headline or a stray line in the Fed minutes (due next week) can push price further and faster than it would in a normal liquid session, simply because there's less depth to absorb the order. ✅ How to actually trade this 1️⃣ Limit orders only, market orders get punished by wider spreads on low volume 2️⃣ Cut size before the move, not after you're stopped out 3️⃣ Flag the calendar: Fed minutes, ECB and BOE commentary, July 24 tariff deadline 4️⃣ Treat a sudden volume spike as a signal to check the news, not chase the candle 5️⃣ Remember: no news yet doesn't mean no risk 🎯 The traders who protect capital in the quiet weeks are the ones with dry powder when the real move hits. Trade with tighter spreads and faster execution when it counts 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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📊 NordFX Morning Update – July 7, 2026 🌏 Asian Markets: Kospi leads regional losses, down over 4% as Samsung (–5%+) and SK Hynix slide despite Samsung beating profit forecasts. Nikkei 225 off ~1.2% to 68,883. Shanghai Composite –0.6% to 4,017, Hang Seng holds up better, +0.4% to 23,708. ⚠️ Geopolitics: Iran's military reportedly struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, breaking a one-week truce – raising fresh risk to the US-Iran deal and lifting oil modestly. 💵 USD: Dollar stays soft after Friday's weak NFP (+57K vs 110K expected, unemployment 4.2%). Markets await Wednesday's FOMC minutes for clues on Chair Warsh's approach. 💴 USD/JPY: Slipped back below 162.00 on the Hormuz headlines and soft Fed-hike bets. 🥇 Gold: Eased back from a two-week high near $4,175–4,188 as investors await the FOMC minutes. 🛢️ Oil: Firming modestly on Hormuz tensions, though Saudi price cuts and an OPEC+ output hike keep a lid on gains. 📅 Today's focus: US ADP employment change, FOMC minutes Wednesday, Samsung's earnings follow-through, and any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. ⚠️ Trade safe and manage your risk! 🚀

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🌅 NordFX Morning Update – July 15, 2026 📊 US CPI cooled to 3.5% y/y (core 2.6%), first monthly drop since 2020 – Fed hike odds for July fell to just 17%, though ~50% still bet on a September move. 🌏 Asia: Kospi rocketed 7.1% on a chip rally, Nikkei +0.9%, ASX +0.2%, Hang Seng +1.6%. Shanghai dipped 0.4% after China's Q2 GDP slowed to 4.3% y/y, missing forecasts. 💵 EUR/USD ~1.139, hovering near 1-year lows – Mideast-driven oil spike fuels ECB hike bets, but euro stays pressured. 🥇 Gold holding near $4,050/oz on safe-haven demand. 🛢️ Brent ~$85.8, WTI ~$80.1 – fresh US strikes on Iran and a Hormuz naval blockade keep oil elevated. 📉 Fed September hike odds eased to 63% post-CPI. US futures firmer despite IBM's 25% crash on weak guidance. Eyes today on Morgan Stanley, J&J and BlackRock earnings. ⚡ Volatility watch: Middle East headlines + Fed speak = stay nimble today! #NordFX #Forex #MarketUpdate

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