NordFX Weekly Forex Forecast: After the Fed - Dollar, Gold and Oil into PCE Week
The Fed just reset the playbook, and markets are still adjusting. Here's what matters this week. 👇
🏦 Fed: Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair held rates at 3.50-3.75%, but the dot plot flipped hawkish, with the 2026 median jumping to 3.8%. A hike by September or October is now firmly on the table.
💵 Dollar: DXY is near 100.8, its strongest level in about a year, gaining broadly. EUR/USD sits near 1.15-1.16, USD/JPY is testing the 160-161 zone where BoJ intervention risk rises. 💴
🥇 Gold: Slid to ~$4,150 last week (third straight weekly loss) as the hawkish Fed and stronger dollar weighed on demand. Goldman cut its year-end target to $4,900. It's since bounced to ~$4,190-4,200 on renewed US-Iran talk headlines. Stuck between Fed pressure and safe-haven bids. ⚖️
🛢️ Oil: Brent near $80, WTI near $77-78. Crude dropped sharply on Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes, then bounced again after Friday's Geneva talks were cancelled and Monday brought reports of fresh progress. Headline-driven and choppy. 🌍
🇬🇧 Political wildcard: UK PM Starmer reportedly preparing an exit, with Andy Burnham tipped as successor. GBP/USD is trading defensively near 1.32-1.33. 🧩
📅 Next up: Thursday's PCE report, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. A hot print cements the hawkish pivot; a soft one could spark a fast dollar unwind.
📊 Levels: DXY 99.8-101.5 | EUR/USD 1.145-1.165 | GBP/USD 1.31-1.335 | USD/JPY 158.5-161.5 | XAU/USD 4,100-4,250 | Brent 78-83
Trade smart and stay close to the calendar this week. 🚀
👉 Open your account with NordFX: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...
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