📊 Early July Outloo...NORDFX Global님의 글

07 Jul 2025, 16:43 · Views 79

📊 Early July Outlook: USD and Euro Trends The start of July has brought fresh momentum to the euro, while the US dollar remains under pressure from political, fiscal, and monetary crosswinds. With key macro events ahead, traders are watching closely for the next breakout in EUR/USD. 💵 USD Weakness Deepens The US dollar index (DXY) continues to drift near multi-month lows. Lingering concerns over US fiscal stability, rising trade tensions, and diminishing expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts are undermining greenback strength. Some analysts even forecast a prolonged correction, with further downside risk over the coming months. 💶 Euro Builds on Strength EUR/USD has gained over 13% since the start of the year and is now trading confidently around the 1.1780 mark. If bullish momentum continues, a breakout toward 1.1850 or even the psychological 1.20 level could be in play this month. However, the ECB remains cautious: a rapidly strengthening euro could impact exports, which may lead to a more dovish tone later in July. 🗓 Key Events to Watch This Week • July 9: Deadline for the next round of US trade tariffs • July 11: US CPI data — any surprises could shift USD sentiment • July 17: ECB policy meeting — market eyes forward guidance 📈 Trading Outlook EUR/USD remains bullish in the short term with key support at 1.1700 and resistance at 1.1850. A break above this resistance could trigger a surge toward 1.1900–1.2000. On the downside, a hawkish surprise from US data or fresh ECB concerns could push the pair back toward 1.1650. 🚀 Stay ahead of market moves with NordFX! 👉 Open your account today https://account.nordfx.com/acc... #Forex #EURUSD #USD #Euro #Dollar #NordFX #TradingStrategy #MarketOutlook #ForexNews #July2025

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🌅 NordFX Morning Update – July 9, 2026 🌏 Asian session: mixed but mostly upbeat. Japan's Nikkei 225 +1.88%, Kospi surged +3% on a chip-stock rebound, Hang Seng +0.16%, CSI 300 flat. ASX 200 –0.69% bucked the trend. 🛢️ Oil extended gains for a 2nd day as US–Iran tensions escalate – Brent and WTI both higher after fresh US strikes on Iran. 🥇 Gold slipped near $4,030–4,060, pressured by a firmer dollar and hawkish FOMC minutes – markets now price a bigger chance of a Fed hike later in 2026. 💵 USD: broadly firm on safe-haven flows and rate-hike bets. 💶 EUR/USD: holding near 1.14, capped by dollar strength ahead of the July 23 ECB decision. 📊 Today's focus: US initial jobless claims, ongoing Middle East headlines, and Fed rate-path speculation – expect elevated volatility across FX, oil and gold. ⚡ Stay sharp, trade smart – NordFX wishes you a profitable day!

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📊 NordFX Insight: Industrial Production and Import Prices – How Real Economy Data Moves FX Two "boring" US reports are quietly steering the dollar right now. Here's why they deserve your attention. 🧵 🏭 Industrial Production Output from factories, mines and utilities has been choppy in 2026: down 0.5% in March, up 0.9% in April, then just +0.1% in May, missing forecasts. Capacity utilization sits around 76%, still below its long-run average. Verdict: the industrial economy isn't overheating. 💵 Import Prices Here trade policy hits the data directly. Import prices rose 1.9% in May after 2.0% in April, lifting the annual rate to 6.7%, the fastest in years. Air freight import costs alone jumped nearly 28% year over year. The cause: a wave of new tariffs, including a 10% global surcharge, Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum and copper, plus fresh Section 301 measures, has pushed the average US tariff rate above 9%. 📦 🌍 Why It Matters for FX Soft output plus rising import costs is a tricky mix for the Fed: not clean growth, not clean disinflation, more like stagflation-style pressure, and that keeps rate expectations volatile. Layer on today's backdrop: renewed US strikes on Iran, energy market jitters, and a new Fed chair steering policy, and you get a dollar that jumps on every print. DXY has been oscillating near 100-101 this month, while EUR/USD pushed back above 1.14 as traders trim Fed hike bets and lean into ECB tightening expectations. 📉📈 🎯 Bottom Line Industrial production shows how strong the real economy is. Import prices show how much tariffs and supply chains are adding to inflation. Together they shape the Fed's next move, and that move ripples through every major currency pair. 💡 Ready to trade the next big data-driven swing? Open your account with NordFX 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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NordFX Forecast: Post Holiday Repricing – USD, Gold, Oil and Bitcoin After the NFP Shock 📊 The July 4 fireworks were still smoking when the jobs data lit a bigger one. June Nonfarm Payrolls printed just 57K versus 115K expected, with April and May slashed by a combined 74K. Unemployment "fell" to 4.2%, but only because discouraged workers left the labor force, participation dropped to 61.5%, the weakest since 2021. Wages held at 3.5% y/y. Underneath the headline: a labor market losing steam. 💵 USD – Rate hike odds for September tumbled toward 50% from near 67% pre print, and the dollar just logged its worst week since April. All eyes now on CPI (July 14) and the July 29 FOMC. Expect sharp, headline driven swings. 🥇 Gold – XAU/USD snapped back above $4,150 after four weekly losses in a row, riding the weaker dollar and fading hike bets. Still far from January's record near $5,600. $4,000 remains the line in the sand; a soft dollar keeps bulls in control for now. 🛢️ Oil – Brent near $72, WTI near $69, the calmest levels since before the US-Iran conflict began. Hormuz shipping is normalizing, Saudi and UAE exports are back close to pre war flows, and OPEC+ just added more barrels. But diplomacy is fragile, one bad headline could reignite the risk premium fast. ₿ Bitcoin – BTC sits in the low $60Ks, nowhere near 2025's $122K peak, as fragile risk appetite and Fed uncertainty keep buyers cautious. Views are split between a bounce toward $65-70K and another leg down if data disappoints again. 🔎 Bottom line: a cooling US economy, a shaky dollar, easing but unresolved geopolitical tension, markets are one headline away from their next big move. Trade this volatility with real conditions. Open an account with NordFX 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... Not financial advice. Markets are volatile, trade responsibly.

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📢 Crypto Weekly Digest: June 24 – July 1 📉 🔴 Bitcoin had one of its roughest weeks of the year, sliding under $59,000–$60,000, its lowest level since late 2024, and closing out June as the worst month of the entire 2026 correction. It's down over 5% on the week alone and nearly $19K off its May peak near $77,600. 🔴 Ethereum wasn't spared either, dipping toward $1,570–$1,620 as spot ETFs bled tens of millions in outflows, with capital rotating into stablecoins and rivals. 🟢 Not everyone lost. Solana and Hyperliquid bucked the trend, posting solid weekly gains while the rest of the top 10 stayed red. 😨 The Fear & Greed Index hit an all-time cycle low of 12 (Extreme Fear) before ticking up slightly to 15. 🏛️ Politics got tangled with crypto again: Trump refused to sign the housing bill carrying a CBDC ban through 2030, holding it hostage until Congress passes his separate voter-ID "SAVE Act." ⚖️ Meanwhile the industry's big prize, the CLARITY Act (crypto market structure law), is stuck in the Senate needing 7 Democratic votes before the August recess. Its fate could shape US crypto rules for years. 🇪🇺 In Europe, MiCA's transition period expired July 1, forcing unlicensed exchanges to wind down, with Binance racing to secure a new EU license. 🕵️ A darker headline: reports surfaced of a China based exchange allegedly used to launder billions in sanctioned Iranian and North Korean funds. ⛏️ Fun fact: even as prices crashed to 20 month lows, Bitcoin's mining difficulty just hit an all time record high. Miners are working harder than ever, betting on the network even in the depths of a bear market! 💪 Stay sharp and trade smart! 🚀

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NFP Before a Holiday: Why Thin Liquidity Can Amplify the Dollar Move | NordFX Insight June's jobs report lands today, July 2, a day early since Friday, July 3 is a US market holiday ahead of Independence Day 📅 That pushes the market's biggest data point straight into a shortened, thin-liquidity session, and that combination tends to exaggerate whatever the headline says. The setup ADP's private payrolls came in at +98K for June, below May's +122K. Consensus for today's official NFP sits around 100K-115K, down from May's strong +172K beat, with unemployment risk tilted toward ticking up to 4.4% from 4.3%. Wage growth has been running near 3.4% YoY. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has scrapped traditional forward guidance, and markets have flipped from pricing cuts to pricing hike risk this year, largely on oil-driven inflation tied to Iran tensions. That's a real regime shift from where 2026 began. USD and gold right now The dollar is firm and near multi-month highs on hawkish Fed bets 💵 Gold has been volatile, breaking below $4,000 earlier this week to an eight-month low before rebounding to around $4,050-4,075 as of today, still capped by resistance near $4,100. A strong payrolls print likely pressures gold and lifts USD further; a soft one could spark a sharp reversal in both. Why the holiday matters With Friday closed, desks thin out early and order books get shallow ⚠️ The same surprise that moves USD pairs 40-50 pips on a normal day can easily go further today, and gold tends to see the same amplification, especially with Strait of Hormuz risk and Trump's tariff threats still simmering in the background 🌍 Bottom line Hawkish Fed repricing + thin holiday liquidity = bigger swings on smaller catalysts. Wider stops and smaller size are the sensible playbook into this print 🎯 Trade the reaction, not the guess. Open an account with NordFX 🚀 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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