📅 Morning Update | ...NORDFX Global님의 글

07 May 2025, 15:16 · Views 100

📅 Morning Update | 07.05.2025 🚀 Asian markets are up on trade hopes! 📈 Hang Seng jumped +1.5% leading the region after news that 🇺🇸 and 🇨🇳 will meet this weekend in Switzerland. 🟢 CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp added +0.5% 🟢 Nikkei 225 rose +0.3% 🟢 S&P 500 Futures up +0.75% 🤝 U.S.-China trade talks confirmed Treasury Sec. Bessent & Trade Rep. Greer will meet China's He Lifeng. Bessent is hopeful: “Productive talks ahead.” China cautious: “Listen to words, watch the actions.” 👀 📉 NZ jobs data weak: Jobless rate stuck at 5.1% Wages slowed to +0.4% ➡️ Rate cut bets rise, with RBNZ likely going below 3.0% this year. ⚔️ India-Pakistan military clash escalates. Despite the tension, 🇮🇳 Gift Nifty Futures still up +0.5% 🏦 China rolls out stimulus: 7-day repo rate cut 🔻 to 1.40% RRR cut by 50bps ➡️ ¥1T liquidity boost More stock market support coming ⏳ Fed decision due today No rate move expected, but all eyes 👁️ on Powell’s comments for clues on July cuts. 🛢️ Oil rebounds from lows: 🟢 Brent +0.7% | WTI +0.9% Support from trade talk buzz + U.S. output cut signals 🥇 Gold drops as risk appetite returns 🔻 Spot -1.3% | Futures -0.9% 📉 Other metals also down as the 💵 dollar firms

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NordFX Weekly Forex Forecast: After the Fed - Dollar, Gold and Oil into PCE Week The Fed just reset the playbook, and markets are still adjusting. Here's what matters this week. 👇 🏦 Fed: Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair held rates at 3.50-3.75%, but the dot plot flipped hawkish, with the 2026 median jumping to 3.8%. A hike by September or October is now firmly on the table. 💵 Dollar: DXY is near 100.8, its strongest level in about a year, gaining broadly. EUR/USD sits near 1.15-1.16, USD/JPY is testing the 160-161 zone where BoJ intervention risk rises. 💴 🥇 Gold: Slid to ~$4,150 last week (third straight weekly loss) as the hawkish Fed and stronger dollar weighed on demand. Goldman cut its year-end target to $4,900. It's since bounced to ~$4,190-4,200 on renewed US-Iran talk headlines. Stuck between Fed pressure and safe-haven bids. ⚖️ 🛢️ Oil: Brent near $80, WTI near $77-78. Crude dropped sharply on Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes, then bounced again after Friday's Geneva talks were cancelled and Monday brought reports of fresh progress. Headline-driven and choppy. 🌍 🇬🇧 Political wildcard: UK PM Starmer reportedly preparing an exit, with Andy Burnham tipped as successor. GBP/USD is trading defensively near 1.32-1.33. 🧩 📅 Next up: Thursday's PCE report, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. A hot print cements the hawkish pivot; a soft one could spark a fast dollar unwind. 📊 Levels: DXY 99.8-101.5 | EUR/USD 1.145-1.165 | GBP/USD 1.31-1.335 | USD/JPY 158.5-161.5 | XAU/USD 4,100-4,250 | Brent 78-83 Trade smart and stay close to the calendar this week. 🚀 👉 Open your account with NordFX: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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🩺 NordFX MARKET AUTOPSY: The Swiss Franc Shock of 2015 Today's Juneteenth holiday shuts US stocks and bonds. FX stays open — but with US banks closed, liquidity runs thin. That's the exact condition that turned one Thursday into a legend. Jan 15, 2015: the SNB scrapped its 3-year-old 1.20 EUR/CHF floor with zero warning. The pair fell from 1.20 toward 0.85 in minutes — a 30% move in a "boring" currency. Stops didn't fire at their levels; they filled wherever the next price was. That's gap risk: the market jumps over your stop instead of through it. Lesson: leverage doesn't know about gaps, and a central bank's promise isn't a fundamental — it's a belief that can vanish in one press release. On thin-liquidity days like today: - Size for the gap, not the candle - Confirm negative balance protection - Cut leverage around holidays/macro events - No currency is "risk-free" just because it's quiet 👉 Register: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... Trading FX involves substantial risk of loss. Not financial advice. #MarketAutopsy #NordFX #SNB #CHF #RiskManagement #Juneteenth

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📊 NordFX Weekly Forex Forecast: Quarter-End Flows - USD Funding, Gold, Oil and Crypto Before July Q2 closes out on Tuesday, June 30, and quarter-end rebalancing is adding extra noise to an already jumpy market. 💵 USD: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but the tone is hawkish - May inflation hit 4.1%, and markets now price nearly three rate hikes this year. The Dollar Index hit a 13-month high above 101.80. EUR/USD sits near 1.14 despite the ECB's first hike since 2023 - the rate gap is just too wide. Expect short-term USD funding to tighten into Tuesday as dealers do their usual quarter-end repo shuffle, then ease into July. ✨ Gold: trading near $4,000-4,070/oz, down for a 4th straight week on the strong dollar, though still up over 20% year-on-year. Central banks bought near-record amounts in Q1, and almost 90% plan to keep adding - dips still look buyable medium-term. 🛢️ Oil: WTI near $68-69, Brent near $72, the lowest since before the Iran conflict, as Gulf supply and Hormuz shipping recover. Crude is down over 20% in four weeks, but the truce is fragile - fresh talks just shifted to Doha, and one bad headline could flip it fast. 📉 Crypto: Bitcoin near $59,000-60,000, the weakest since 2024, hit by ETF outflows and rotation into AI stocks. Sentiment is deep in "extreme fear" - crypto is trading like a risk asset, not a hedge. 🌍 This week: watch the ISM PMI, the US jobs report, and any Doha headline - that's what's moving gold, oil and the dollar together right now. Trade the volatility with tight spreads at NordFX: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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🌅 NordFX Morning Update – June 30, 2026 🇺🇸 Overnight: Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time (+0.59%), S&P 500 +1.18%, Nasdaq +2.07% as Alphabet jumped nearly 5% on its Dow debut. Sentiment was lifted after the Supreme Court let Fed Governor Lisa Cook keep her seat for now. 🌏 Asia today: Nikkei 225 +1.64%, Kospi +3.24%, CSI 300 +1.12%, while Hang Seng slipped -1.19% and ASX 200 -0.09%. China's NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June (vs 50.1 forecast, 50.0 in May), back in expansion on strong tech-export demand. 💱 Forex: EUR/USD around 1.1400, easing slightly after last week's rebound, with focus on the ECB's Sintra Forum. USD/JPY near 162.00 – its weakest level since 1986 – keeping BOJ intervention risk firmly in focus. 🛢️ Commodities: Brent ~$72.5, WTI ~$70.4, both easing as US–Iran talks resume today in Doha. Gold has slipped just below $4,000/oz (~$3,990) as markets price in possible Fed rate hikes later this year. 📅 Today's watch: US JOLTS job openings, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence; ECB Sintra Forum continues; markets eye Thursday's US jobs report. ⚠️ Stay sharp and trade safe! #NordFX #ForexNews #MorningUpdate

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