FPG ：Focusing on the non-agricultural report and the rise of the US dollar exchange rate, gold prices fell back slightly 1. [Accelerated cooling of the U.S. job market] The latest data shows that 8733 million JOBS vacancies in the United States in October, far lower than the expected 9.3 million, with a previous value of 95.53 million. Comment: Historically, the rapid decline of job vacancies generally means that a recession is coming. From this perspective, some markets believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply and quickly next year, which is actually pricing the recession. 2. [Russia supports OPEC] On Tuesday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that if the production reduction agreement reached by OPEC+ last week is not enough to balance the oil market, OPEC+ may take further measures. Comments: OPEC can actually only control 14 million barrels/day production capacity, and the other more than 15 million barrels/day production capacity has not obeyed orders. At this time, Russia’s nearly 10 million barrels/day production capacity has become very important. 3. [The European Central Bank should not consider raising interest rates further] Schnabel, a member of the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank, said that in view of inflation With a significant decline, European history should not consider further interest rate hikes, and policymakers should not propose it before mid-2024. Radical interest rate policy. Comment: The energy end/pressure plaguing Europe is being eased. In fact, the recent weakening of crude oil has pushed the euro to strengthen, which is also one of the important reasons for the decline of the US dollar. 4. [Biden: If Trump does not run, he is not sure whether he will seek re-election] U.S. President Biden said on Tuesday local time that if there is no Republican Trump, he is not sure whether he will seek re-election. Biden said when raising money for the 2024 campaign outside Boston: “If Trump doesn’t run, I’m not sure if I will run.” Biden said, “We can’t let him win. Comment: Biden may actually want Trump to run for president, but the president’s candidacy is less beneficial and risky for Trump. 5. [Wall Street says investors are overly optimistic and warns that the U.S. market is no longer short] Wall Street believes that investors’ optimism has risen to a dangerous level. After the S&P 500 index soared 9% in November and the yield of U.S. bonds fell sharply, the market has become more cautious. Everyone is thinking about whether the Federal Reserve will really start to cut interest rates as aggressively as the swap market expected, or whether traders’ bets on interest rate cuts are too hasty again. Comment: Traders now believe that the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in the first quarter is about 70%, and they have digested It is expected to cut interest rates up to five times at the end of 2024 and 25 basis points each time. It is likely that the addition will not start until the middle of next year. 6. [Blade: The volatility of the U.S. market will intensify in 2024. The bet on the Fed’s interest rate cut may fail] Some traders are preparing for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as the first quarter, and coin-Blede’s strategists are not expected to begin to relax politics until the middle of the year. There is a risk of failure, and rising interest rates and intensified volatility may be the characteristics of the new mechanism. Comments: Supply constraints caused by geopolitics, the shrinking labor force caused by aging population, and the transition to a low-carbon economy are driving changes, which will lead to a slowdown in growth, continuous higher than official targets, and increased uncertainty. It will indeed create a turbulent environment. King, a special analyst at FPG, said: The recent rise in gold prices to record levels is not driven by specific catalysts, but by the peak of momentum. Technical traders observe the pattern of higher highs and lower points, indicating a rising trajectory. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar index, affected by favorable U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, has also contributed to the soaring gold prices. Although the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that the work of curbing currency has not been completed, smart investors expect gold prices to hit a new high. The rebound of the stock market after the Fed’s speech shows that market participants are skeptical of the Fed’s outlook. Dawson, a special analyst at FPG, said: The next week is crucial for gold prices and the Federal Reserve. U.S. employment data, JOLTS data, and consumer sentiment and inflation expectations will be released one after another. Traders will closely analyze these indicators. If the job market remains strong, consumer sentiment remains strong, and expectations fall further, the possibility of gold prices continuing to rise is obvious. Although there may be a short-term sell-off, it may be wise to regard it as an investment opportunity. Overall, the trend in 2024 seems to be upward, and it is expected to hit more record highs. Dave, a special analyst at FPG, said: The market is skeptical of OPEC+’s ability to achieve additional production cuts early next year, and crude oil closed down for four consecutive days, the lowest closing since July. The voluntary nature of the overall production reduction makes traders doubt whether producers will comply with the production reduction. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister’s remarks on Monday hinted that production cuts in the first quarter may be extended, which provides little lasting support. At the end of the outlook, oil prices are becoming heavier and heavier. If there is no positive or bullish market catalyst in the future, we may see West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTD test 2023 low of $67 per barrel). Yue Lin, a special analyst of FPG, said: The three major U.S. stock indexes closed with mixed gains and falls. The Dow fell 0.22%, the Nasda Index rose 0.31%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.06%, most large technology stocks rose, Apple and Nvidia rose more than 2%, and Amazon, Google and Tesla rose more than 1%. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex