FPG ：Short-term gold prices are more active, and the long-term trend is still uncertain 1. [Israeli army enters the southern Gaza Strip] The Israeli military said on December 4 local time that its troops were confronting Palestinian Islamic Resistance (Hamas) militants in the Gaza Strip and planned to launch a ground attack in the refugee-intensive area south of the enclave. According to CCTV news reporters from the Gaza Strip, dozens of Israeli tanks have entered the southern part of the Gaza Strip on the morning of the 4th. Comment: If the Israeli military’s action triggers the expansion of the area of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the yield of U.S. bonds may rise again. 2. [U.S. Repurchase of Oil Reserves] David Turk, Deputy Secretary of Energy of the United States, said that he would repurchase as many oil reserves as possible, but the replenishment of strategic oil reserves is constrained by capacity. Comment: In terms of volume, the United States previously suppressed oil prices and consumed a large amount of reserves, so the restock is also considerable. But the United States is now unwilling to raise oil prices because of replenishing its inventory. 3. [22 countries attempt to gain energy independence] 22 countries, including Japan and South Korea, launched the Triple Declaration on Nuclear Energy, intending to promote the goal of doubling the global installed nuclear energy capacity by 2050 compared with 2020. Comments: The soaring oil prices during the epidemic have made Japan and South Korea determined to carry out energy independence. 4. [Indian stock index hit a new high] On Monday, India’s Sensex index closed at 6886512 and the Nifty 50 index closed at 20686,80 points, and the Sensex and Nifty 50 indexes rose 2.1%, setting a record high. The Nifty 50 index has risen nearly 14% this year and is moving towards an unprecedented eight-year rise. Comment: India is trying to replicate the rising model of banking + real estate + end manufacturing. 5. [Factory orders in the United States in October fell by 3.6% month-on-month] Factory orders in the United States fell by 3.6% month-on-month, which is 2020. A new low since April, it is expected to fall by 2.6%, and the previous value has been revised from 2.8% to 2.3%. Comments: The GDP forecast data of the United States has been significantly reduced, from 1.8 in November to 1.2 in December, among which the decline in private investment and consumption will be the main reason. 6. [ Saudi Energy Minister: OPEC+ production reduction action can definitely be persisted until after March] Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that if necessary, OPEC+ can “absolutely” reduce production until after the first quarter. He said that his promise to reduce the spread would be fully fulfilled. Comment: Traders are still evaluating the impact of the OPEC+ production reduction agreement, and one of the biggest problems is Russia. Russia only agreed to cut supply, but did not reduce production. King, a special analyst at FPG, said: Although many Wall Street investment banks have given international gold prices to hit $2300 per ounce next year or even higher. The expectation is that the long-term trend of gold prices is still facing many uncertainties, including whether the geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East will continue, and whether global central banks will slow down their efforts to hoard gold because gold prices are at an all-time high. Of course, some analysts believe that from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, on the occasion of the European and American shopping season, the Indian wedding season and China’s Lunar New Year, the physical gold demand of consumers in these major gold consumers is expected to remain strong and may provide action for gold prices in the short term. Dawson, a special analyst at FPG, said: With the decline of inflation in the United States and the frequent signs of economic damage, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike may be coming to an end, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is expected to heat up, and the gold sector is expected to usher in an excellent layout. At the same time, with the continuation of the wave of geopolitical tension + dedollarization, the enhancement of risk aversion and credit attributes will provide medium- and long-term support for gold prices. The market expects gold prices to continue to reach a new high. Dave, a special analyst at FPG, said: Saudi Arabia’s last words can recover the decline of crude oil, and international crude oil futures have three consecutive trading days after the OPEC+ meeting last Thursday. Falling. When U.S. stocks quickly refreshed their daily lows on Monday, U.S. WTI crude oil fell to $72.63, falling 1.9% within the day. After the Saudi Energy Minister promised that it might continue the current reduction after the first quarter of next year, oil prices have turned up in the short term. In the end, WTI crude oil futures fell 1.39% to 73.04 USD/barrel in January. Yue Lin, a special analyst of FPG, said: Since this year, the U.S. stock market has rebounded strongly, and the S&P 500 index has risen 19% since the beginning of the year. Among them, U.S. stocks experienced a “crazy November” last month: the S&P 500 index rose 8.92% in a single month, not only the largest monthly increase since July, but also the second best November performance since 1980. However, Mike Wilson, investment director of Morgan Stanley, warned that the United States has entered the end of the economic cycle, which means that U.S. stocks may rise relatively limited, and investors who hope that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut will bring about a sharp rise in U.S. stocks may be disappointed. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex