FPG：Weighing the CPI winning data, gold futures closed at a three-week low 1. [OPEC Monthly Report] Due to Saudi Arabia’s extended production reduction, the supply gap in the crude oil market reached 3 million barrels per day. The report maintains the growth forecast of global crude oil demand for this year and next year at 2.4 million barrels per day and 2.2 million barrels per day, respectively, and increases the growth forecast of crude oil production in non-OPEC countries this year by 100,000 barrels to 1.6 million barrels per day. Comments: OPEC said it showed signs that despite adverse factors such as high interest rates and Qualcomm accounts, the performance of major economies was better than expected. 2. [U.S. Water Data] The annual rate of CPI in the United States at the end of August recorded 3.7%, a new high in May this year, and rebounded for the second time in a row; the core CPI annual rate of the United States in August recorded 4.3%, which was a new low since September 2021, and has fallen for six consecutive months. Comments: After the release of the core CPI data, the market’s bet on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike before November has increased. 3. [EIA Crude Oil Inventory] In the week of September 8, EIA crude oil inventory in the United States increased by 3.955 million barrels, a decrease of 1.912 million barrels more than expected. Comments: EIA data and the higher-than-expected data of the United States in August have aroused concerns about the decline in energy demand in the future, putting pressure on oil prices. 4 [Russia claims to destroy Ukrainian drones in the territory] The governor of Bryansk Oblast of Russia said on the night of the 13th local time that the Russian air defense forces shot down two Ukrainian drones over the state without ground casualties and building damage. Almost At the same time, the governor of Belgorod Oblast of Russia said that Russian air defense forces shot down an air target over the state, and preliminary information showed that there were no ground casualties and building damage. Comments: The situation in Russia and Ukraine may further escalate and deteriorate. 5. [Continuous British strikes] Britain is experiencing the most fierce strike since the 1980s. According to the latest data from the British Bureau of Statistics, since June 2022, the strike has led to a loss of more than 4 million working hours in the UK. Comments: The employment dilemma caused by high inflation, stagnant wages and layoffs led to a wave of strikes, exposing the deep social and economic contradictions in the UK. 6. [Under economic pressure, the European Central Bank is expected to suspend interest rate hikes] Because the economic activity in the euro area is more serious than the market expected, the mainstream view of the market believes that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged at a later meeting on Thursday (September 14). Last week, data jointly released by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) showed that the final value of the comprehensive PMI in the euro area recorded 46.7, a low of nearly 33 months; the service PMI fell to 47.9, which was also the lowest level in 30 months. Comment: “The hawkish suspension” may be the best compromise between different opinions within the European Central Bank on the issue of interest rates. Because this move can not only meet the need to reduce the future of Qualcomm, but also recognize that the global economic headwind may plunge the eurozone economy into recession. King, a special analyst at FPG, views: In terms of data, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August, released on Wednesday, rose 0.6% month-on-month, the largest month-on-month increase in 14 months. Excluding energy and food price factors, the so-called core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August. Yesterday, the market interpreted the latest U.S. CP1 account data, which put gold at a disadvantage, but because more important data will be released in the future, the gold price may soon find support. In this sense, Thursday If the retail sales data is weaker than expected, it may offset the impact of unexpected upward data and challenge the soft landing. Dawson, a special analyst at FPG, views: In the second half of the year, the industrial output of the euro zone fell in July, further indicating that the manufacturing industry will continue to drag down economic growth. The data shows that services such as tourism have shouldered the responsibility of economic growth in the euro area in the summer. Previous data released by various countries showed that the output value of Germany and Italy fell, while the output value of France and Spain increased. Wednesday’s industrial output report was one of the last batches of data released by the European History Bank before the interest rate decision on Thursday. On Thursday, European Central Bank officials It will determine whether the consumer price trend is sufficient to support another interest rate hike, or whether to suspend the interest rate hike to avoid further damage to the economy. Dave, a special analyst at FPG, points of view: On September 13, traders were waiting for further hints about the prospect of global energy demand, as well as the U.S. data and the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision. At the same time, due to the market’s expectation that the reduction in production in major oil-producing countries will lead to a global crude oil supply shortage in the fourth quarter, crude oil prices rose and hit a new high in the year. In terms of data, Baker Hughes’ report on the number of oil rigs in the United States shows that the number of oil rigs operated in the United States has increased by one per week, reaching 513 as of the week of September 8. The number of oil drilling platforms decreased by 78 year-on-year. FPG special analyst Yue Lin’s point of view: U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed down on Wednesday. The data of the United States in August was higher than expected, which aroused concerns about the decline in energy demand in the future and put pressure on oil prices. In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories rebounded after weeks of decline last week. However, the International Energy Agency released a monthly report on Wednesday, predicting a “serious market shortage” in the fourth quarter of the world. The agency said that since January this year, voluntary production cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have reduced the daily crude oil supply in the market by 2.5 million barrels. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex