Morning traders, the...Smart Jet님의 글

Morning traders, the NFP is the highlight of the day, if it beats expectations by some margin the market will push to price in a full 50bps hike for the next FOMC, which would dump further risk assets and strengthen the Dollar, while the opposite is obviously also true, if the NFP prints on the weak side then the market will price out the 50bps and go for a smaller 25bps which would allow risk assets to rally and the USD to pull back deep We can say, on a strong NFP EURUSD should head towards 1.04000, on a weak NFP it should head to 1.07500, these should be the two short term "fair values" scenarios heading into the CPI next week depending on the NFP Other than that, TDS which is usually pretty accurate is expecting a number right around the consensus so yeah, not much to expect at the moment

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Morning traders, with the CPI everywhere I look I see notes about the likelihood of a strong print, Goldmans is also expecting a number a tiny bit above expectations so we are geared in that direction but obviously when the consensus is geared one way the risk is that the number doesn't meet the already high expectations triggering an unwind of positions So, even if the likelihood is USD strength we don't want to get into the event too long the Dollar, meaning that we will likely adjust the recently added AUDUSD short before the CPI later, then once we see the numbers and the price action around it we can start looking at some medium term direction across the board

Smart Jet

Morning traders, I'm seeing a big beautiful bearish engulfing on the daily on GBPUSD, and that I think will be enough to get me into shorts over the next couple of sessions Yes, currently we should expect a bit more Dollar strength heading into the FOMC next week, the current context feels a mix of risk off sentiment with also some hawkish expectations for the upcoming rate decision, a 25bps is sealed in but now there is some sentiment growing for even another 25bps hike at the June rate decision, NOT sure about that because between now and then the pressure on banks could resurface but we will see Either way, my focus remains on USD longs at the moment, open to changing my mind quickly if the PCE on Friday prints soft, but for now, I will be looking for GBPUSD shorts near 1.24800, no pending order placed yet

Smart Jet

Morning traders, EURUSD is at an interesting resistance zone, if I see the right bearish setup we are going to go for shorts, but again, waiting for the right technical trigger to confirm the entry first Not a lot else that I'm watching across the board at the moment, currently I'm still mainly interested in USD longs, with the economic data today the consumer confidence is one we have to watch but most of the attention is for the PCE on Friday, you know it, that's Powell's favorite inflation metric so any deviation on that will shape the sentiment for the upcoming FOMC

Smart Jet