FPG: Gold suddenly rose sharply in the short term, and a number of blockbuster data were released this week. Latest market news: 1. [Saudi Arabia raised the price of most of crude oil sold to Asia and Europe in April] Saudi Arabia raised the price of most of crude oil sold to Asia and Europe in April, implying that it believes that oil demand in Asia and Europe will rise, and the price of crude oil sold to the United States will remain unchanged. Comments: In the future, the Gulf oil-producing parliaments in Iraq and Kuwait will follow the pricing of Saudi Aramco. 2. [The Federal Reserve officials will not cut interest rates soon] The chairman of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, before Powell attends Congress, needs to raise interest rates to a higher position and keep it longer to reduce inflation. Comments: The current interest rate is the limit that the U.S. economy can bear without a recession. In order to combat the rise of long-term inflation expectations, it is likely that it can only be done by maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time. 3. [Iran promises to cooperate with international verification and supervision] Rafael Grossi, Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), paid a visit to Iran. Both sides revealed their willingness to strengthen cooperation in their joint statements and at press conferences after the meeting. Iran is committed to cooperating with IAEA verification and supervision, including resuming the operation of monitoring equipment in some previously closed nuclear facilities. Comments: In recent months, tensions between Iran and Western countries have intensified, making the already stagnant resumption of contract negotiations face more difficulties. 4. [The market is waiting for Powell to give new guidelines for raising interest rates] After experiencing a data blow, the market has raised the top of the Federal Reserve’s maximum interest rate hike from about 5% to 5.5%. Next week, Powell will report on the semi-annual monetary policy in Congress, and is expected to give new guidelines for raising interest rates. Comments: Long-term inflation expectations in the United States have begun to rise, indicating that the market is beginning to lose confidence in the current policy of the Federal Reserve. 5. [Progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine] Russian Defense Minister Shoigu presided over a meeting at the headquarters of the joint forces, focusing on the weapons and ammunition support of the Russian army. Ukrainian President Zelensky held talks with the visiting Speaker of the European Parliament, Mezzola, in Lvivov, Ukraine, on the 4th. Reuters quoted a number of U.S. officials as reporting on the 4th that two Ukland pilots have arrived in Arizona, where they fly flight simulators and are evaluated by the U.S. military. Comments: At present, Europe, the United States and other countries are highly involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and small-scale attacks on Russia are frequent. 6. [South Korea‘s chip inventory increased to the highest level in 26 years] In January, the sales ratio of South Korea’s chip inventory reached 265.7%, a new high in nearly 26 years. A high chip inventory rate means that supply exceeds demand. Given that chips are South Korea‘s main exports, the prospects of South Korea’s exports and economy are worrying. Comments: The chip inventory is still high, so I‘m afraid the price pressure is still not eliminated. 7. [The U.S. senator intends to propose a bill to prohibit senior administrative officials from holding or trading individual shares] U.S. Republican Senator Josh Hawley is expected to introduce a bill on March 6 to prohibit senior administrative officials from holding or trading individual shares to strengthen internal benefits to the federal government. Limitations of conflict. Comments: It is expected to be difficult to implement. Opinions of FPG Special Analyst Nanshi: On Friday night, gold rose rapidly, reaching as high as around 1856.5 USD per ounce. Technically, gold is still maintained in the rising channel of 1804-1838. The technical indicators have a certain degree of deviation, and it is expected that gold will have a demand for a correction. In addition, the key employment market report in the United States, the non-agricultural report, will be released this week. The market will make preliminary judgments from these industry indicators in advance, and investors should continue to pay attention to it. FPG special analyst Dawson’s opinion: Japanese yen: The Japanese trade union called for the largest salary increase in 25 years in the spring salary negotiations. At the same time, the Central Bank of Japan and the Bank of Japan urged enterprises to raise workers‘ wages to support the economy. According to a survey of more than 2,000 trade unions across the country by the Japan Federation of Labor Unions (JTUC), the trade union asked for an average salary increase of 4.49% this year, the highest since 4.36% in 1998. Today’s trading plan is short at the high point, the first pressure position is 136.1, and the target is 135.4. FPG special analyst Dave‘s opinion: Crude oil: After the Western ban on Russian crude oil and petroleum products came into effect, Russia’s oil and natural gas revenue almost halved in February, and natural gas exports to Europe fell. Russia‘s Ministry of Finance said on Friday that taxes on stone oil and natural gas fell 46% year-on-year in February to 521.1 billion rubles ($6.91 billion). According to institutional calculations, Russian crude oil and oil product revenue (accounting for more than two-thirds of last month’s energy tax revenue) fell 48% to 361 billion rubles. Rosneft‘s contribution to the budget has declined because the price of Ural crude oil used for export has been greatly reduced compared with Brent crude oil. Today’s operation strategy is much lower, support position 78.5, target position 83 FPG special analyst Yue Lin‘s opinion: Investors weighed the economic data and the speeches of a number of Federal Reserve officials, and began to reflect on the future monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the decline in U.S. bond yields also boosted the market, and U.S. stocks fluctuated and closed up. At present, the market is still evaluating the future policy path of the Federal Reserve. According to the latest data, the Federal Reserve can maintain the interest rate increase at 25 basis points, but the current probability of 50 basis points has also risen to 30%. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex