European economic activity grew in early 2023 while providing fresh air to the possibility of this region avoiding a recession. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.2 in January 2023 from 49.8 in December 2022. eurozone, having previously contracted since June 2022.
A number of factors have boosted optimism that the eurozone can avoid a recession in 2023, ranging from sluggish inflation, a better-than-expected winter and easing supply chain barriers. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that although a stable economy is hinting that the region may avoid a recession, the eurozone is far from out of trouble. After the release of the PMI data, the euro turned stagnant and German government bond yields weakened. German and French PMI data are still contracting, although the German service sector and French manufacturing recorded expansions. "Demand continues to fall and the increase in inflation in the selling price of goods and services will add impetus for hawkish (ECB officials) to carry out further monetary policy tightening," explained Chris. The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised interest rates by 250 basis points and will raise interest rates again by 50 basis points at a meeting next week. "The possibility of an increase in interest rates is driven by the increase in job growth recorded during this month and signs of rising wages which prompted a return to price pressures," concluded Chris.
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