Morning traders, AUD...Smart Jet님의 글

Morning traders, AUD longs (or NZD longs) in the spotlight from here forward, bullish seasonal flows start today and continue up to April 16 (see Sunday Briefing for more details) we prefer AUDUSD or NZDUSD longs for three reasons, first commodity currencies stay supported due to the high commodity prices, second because it moves us away from the geopolitical headlines in Europe which is a good idea, and third the RBNZ is also expected to deliver a decent 50bps hike this month, will update you with the details when we set a pending order Elsewhere the EUR is still the underperformer across the board (EURCHF longs stopped) as the threat of further sanctions against Russia weight on sentiment, we monitor the headlines for important shifts in sentiment as the peace talks are still ongoing between both sides

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Morning traders, RBA hiked 25bps overnight which was a move not priced in, and that's an interesting development, mainly because it offers us an insight into what central banks might be thinking, you know, if the RBA is overextending on its tightening then other central banks might find themselves in a similar situation, sure the context around the RBA and FED is different but still, the RBA just opened the door for the possibility of central banks doing MORE than what's currently expected With that said, this is not something that we can take action on short term but it whispers that it is time to be careful with risk assets again, more tightening not just from the FED but from other central banks too will put more pressure on the economy globally which will weigh on risk, so in this context I continue to like the Dollar

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Morning traders, keeping it sweet and short today, I think we get a technical pullback on the Dollar short term to explore prices above 1.10000 on EURUSD which I will also be happy to use to position short AUDUSD if we get the chance. Other than that, BTC still has a place in the back of my mind for that profit taking, with this latest drop I’m even more tempted to do that sooner rather than later, writing the full email note with all the technical and fundamental details that will be sent out as soon as we take profit

Smart Jet

Morning traders, no clean sentiment to trade from the FOMC yesterday, while instead the pressure on US banks is resurfacing again and that's likely going to dent sentiment across the board, in that context the likes of JPY and CHF longs are quite attractive again, also USD longs but only against high beta currencies are also a decent option where we are already positioned with the AUDUSD shorts So yes, we like classic safe haven currencies in this environment and looking across the board for setups to possibly position long the JPY or CHF Other than that, the ECB rate decision is another one that we watch carefully, hawkishness from the ECB will likely just put more pressure on risk assets while if they pivot we have some EURUSD shorts to take

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