Gold has rejected 4,167–4,180 supply and broken the rising trendline.
Now the real question is:
Will 4,141 hold — or become the trigger for another leg lower?
Macro Driver
Gold is trading in a market waiting for the next Fed signal.
The USD has softened and expectations for an October rate hike have fallen sharply, giving Gold some downside protection.
However, Treasury yields remain elevated while rising oil prices and geopolitical risks continue to keep inflation expectations in focus.
The next major catalyst is the FOMC Minutes.
A dovish message could support Gold.
A hawkish message could revive USD/yield pressure.
M30 Market Structure
The latest price sequence is:
Supply Rejection → Trendline Break → Pivot Retest
Key levels:
• 4,167–4,180 — M30 Supply / Fib 0.5–0.618
• 4,150 — Fib 0.382 / Reaction
• 4,141 — Pivot Zone
• 4,125–4,130 — M30 FVG
• 4,105–4,110 — Major Demand / Liquidity
Scenario 1 — Bearish Continuation
If Gold fails to reclaim 4,141–4,150:
4,141 → 4,130 → 4,125
A clean break below the FVG could expose:
4,105–4,110 Major Demand
This is where downside liquidity becomes much more interesting.
Scenario 2 — Sweep & Reclaim
But sellers still need confirmation.
If Gold sweeps below 4,125–4,130 and quickly reclaims the Pivot:
Sweep → MSS → Reclaim
The recovery path could reopen toward:
4,150 → 4,167–4,180
A sustained break above 4,180 would invalidate the immediate bearish rejection thesis and reopen the higher Fibonacci levels.
The Real Question
Is 4,141 the beginning of another bearish expansion —
or just the reset before Gold attacks 4,180 again?
Would you watch the 4,130 FVG or the 4,180 supply first?
면책 조항: 본 게시글에 표현된 견해는 전적으로 작성자의 견해이며 Followme의 공식 입장을 대변하지 않습니다. Followme는 제공된 정보의 정확성, 완전성 또는 신뢰성에 대해 책임을 지지 않으며, 서면으로 명시적으로 언급되지 않는 한 해당 내용을 기반으로 취해진 어떠한 조치에 대해서도 책임을 지지 않습니다.
