GBPUSD — 4H Market Structure 📊
GBPUSD is still showing a clear bearish structure, with price recently breaking down from the 1.3470–1.3500 area and printing a new weak low around 1.3210–1.3220.
Price is currently around 1.3255 and reacting from the larger 1.3190–1.3260 demand zone. The interesting part of this chart is that we're now looking for a potential corrective recovery, rather than chasing the move lower.
If this demand zone holds, the first area I'd watch is 1.3350–1.3370, followed by the 1.3470–1.3500 supply zone. That upper zone is particularly important because it could determine whether this is simply a retracement within the bearish structure or the beginning of a larger recovery.
If price instead breaks and accepts below 1.3190, the bullish recovery scenario would be weakened and the bearish structure could extend further.
Current map:
1.3190–1.3260 demand → 1.3350–1.3370 → 1.3470–1.3500 supply
The wider fundamental backdrop remains important. The dollar has been supported by expectations of further Fed tightening after the Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%, while sterling has remained under pressure.
🗓️ Forex Calendar — This Week
🔸 Tue 29 Sep: UK mortgage/credit data + US JOLTS Job Openings & Consumer Confidence
🔴 Wed 30 Sep: US ADP Employment + Core PCE — important USD volatility
🔴 Thu 1 Oct: US ISM Manufacturing + Jobless Claims
🔴 Fri 2 Oct: US Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings & Unemployment Rate — major USD event of the week.
For GBPUSD, Friday's NFP release is the major event to watch, particularly because the pair is sitting near a significant demand area. The reaction around 1.3190–1.3260 could be important for determining whether this becomes a meaningful corrective recovery or another bearish continuation.
For now: I'm watching the demand reaction and looking for confirmation before assuming the recovery.
*Not financial advice — educational/market-structure analysis only.*
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