EURUSD remains structurally bullish on H4 after sweeping previous Sell-Side Liquidity and printing multiple BOS.
Price is now trading around 1.1676–1.1690 and approaching the key Buy-Side Liquidity at 1.1690–1.1710.
📊 H4 Market Structure
• H4 structure remains bullish
• Price is pressing into major BSL
• 1.1690–1.1710 is the main decision zone
• H4 FVG + Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 create a potential retracement area below
🎯 Today’s Main Bias: Bearish Pullback
My primary expectation for today is a BSL sweep followed by a bearish intraday retracement.
The key is not simply touching 1.1690–1.1710. I want to see price take the liquidity, reject the zone, and then confirm a lower-timeframe structural shift.
🔴 Short Setup
Entry Zone: 1.1685–1.1705
Preferred Entry: After a sweep above 1.1690–1.1710 + bearish rejection + LTF CHoCH
SL: 1.1725
TP1: 1.1635
TP2: 1.1615
TP3: 1.1570–1.1580
With an average entry around 1.1695, the setup offers approximately:
• TP1 → 2R
• TP2 → 2.7R
• TP3 → 4R
📍 Execution Sequence
Price sweeps the 1.1690–1.1710 BSL.
Price fails to hold above the liquidity zone and shows bearish rejection.
M15/M5 forms a bearish CHoCH.
Wait for the bearish FVG/OB retest.
Short execution is considered only after this confirmation.
This keeps the setup from becoming a blind short at BSL.
🎯 Expected Bearish Path
1.1690–1.1710 BSL sweep
↓
Bearish rejection + LTF CHoCH
↓
1.1635 — first reaction / FVG area
↓
1.1615 — deeper Fib + FVG reaction
↓
1.1570–1.1580 — Small OB
The 1.1615–1.1635 area is the first major zone where sellers may encounter stronger reaction.
If bearish momentum remains strong after this zone, the move toward 1.1570–1.1580 becomes the deeper scenario.
🟢 Bullish Invalidation
The bearish idea is invalidated if EURUSD breaks above 1.1710 and H4 accepts and holds above that level.
In that case, I would stop looking for the BSL rejection setup and shift the focus toward bullish continuation above 1.1710.
🔑 Key Levels
• 1.1690–1.1710 → BSL / main decision zone
• 1.1685–1.1705 → Short execution area
• 1.1635 → TP1 / first reaction
• 1.1615 → TP2 / FVG + Fib
• 1.1570–1.1580 → TP3 / Small OB
• 1.1500–1.1520 → Deeper H4 demand
📌 Today’s Roadmap
Primary: BSL sweep → rejection → CHoCH → short → 1.1635 → 1.1615 → potentially 1.1570–1.1580.
Alternative: H4 acceptance above 1.1710 → bearish setup invalidated → bullish continuation becomes the preferred scenario.
The H4 trend is still bullish, so this is a countertrend pullback idea, not a confirmed H4 reversal. The confirmation after the BSL sweep is the key factor.
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