🌅 Morning Update: 17.12.2024 📊

17 Dec 2024, 15:04 · Views 59

🌍 Global Markets: Investors tread cautiously ahead of central bank decisions. The Fed's Wednesday meeting takes centre stage, with a 94% chance of a 25bps rate cut priced in. However, slower easing is expected in 2025. 🇺🇸 US futures dip slightly despite tech-driven gains overnight.

📉 Asia Mixed:

📊 Nikkei +0.3%
📉 Hang Seng -0.5%
🇨🇳 China data disappoints: Industrial output met expectations, but retail sales slowed sharply. Property woes persist despite stabilised home prices.

🏛️ China: Plans a record 4% GDP deficit for 2025 (up from 3%) to spur growth amid challenges. Leadership sticks to a 5% growth target despite the property crisis and risks like potential Trump tariffs.

💰 Crypto:

🚀 Bitcoin smashes records at $107,767 following Trump’s Strategic Reserve proposal, despite implementation hurdles.
📈 MicroStrategy’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 fuels bullish sentiment.
🚀 ETH nears its all-time high at $4,011.

🌏 Political Unrest:

🇰🇷 South Korea: President Yoon impeached over martial law decree.
🇩🇪 Germany: Parliament withdraws confidence in Scholz’s government.
🇨🇦 Canada: Finance Minister Freeland resigns amid rising US trade tensions.

💹 Central Banks:

🇯🇵 BOJ expected to hold rates this week (91% surveyed), but most anticipate hikes within 3 months.
🇮🇩 Indonesia & 🇹🇭 Thailand hold steady; 🇵🇭 Philippines likely to cut.

💵 Currencies:

The Dollar firms near 2.5-week highs 📈 as markets await Fed guidance.
Euro: $1.05002, Yen: 154.06, Sterling bounces 📊 ahead of UK labour data.

🛢️ Commodities:

🛢️ Oil dips: WTI $70.60, Brent $74.08 as China demand concerns offset OPEC+ cuts.
⚠️ IEA warns of a 950,000 bpd surplus in 2025 despite supply constraints.

🏢 Corporate News:

🛒 Alibaba to sell its Intime stake for $1 billion, recording a $1.3 billion loss as part of strategic restructuring. Shares fall 1.5% in Hong Kong.

📅 Data to Watch Today:

🇬🇧 UK Wage Data
🇩🇪 German Ifo Expectations & ZEW Economic Sentiment for December

Stay tuned and trade smart! 📈🚀

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NordFX | Month-End Rebalancing Before Central-Bank Month: What Traders Should Watch 📅 The final days of May - and June is opening with risk stacked on both sides. 💵 Thin liquidity, big flows Month-end rebalancing is active. Institutional portfolios are off-target after a volatile spring, and large FX adjustments are concentrating around the London 4 p.m. fix - historically a trigger for outsized moves on thin volume. The DXY hovers near 99.2, structurally soft but headline-sensitive. 🛢 Oil: the dominant macro variable Brent near $96/bbl, WTI near $88-93/bbl - both volatile as Iran pledged to restore Strait of Hormuz shipping, with the first non-Iranian supertankers crossing in a week. The Strait handles ~20% of global oil and LNG flows. Every twist in US-Iran talks is a direct price trigger. 🥇 Gold: correction, not breakdown Spot gold trades near $4,400-4,450 today, down ~21% from its January all-time high of $5,589. Higher oil pushed US CPI to 3.8% in April, killing rate cut expectations and strengthening the dollar. But central banks bought 243 tonnes in Q1 2026 alone (+35% quarter-over-quarter). Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan still target $5,400-6,300 by year-end. 🏦 First FOMC under Warsh - June 16-17 The Fed held at 3.50-3.75% in April on an 8-4 vote. Powell's term ended May 15; Kevin Warsh chairs his first meeting June 16-17. A hold is near-certain, but his guidance on the oil-inflation dynamic will set the tone for Q3 risk appetite. ECB meets June 18, Bank of England June 17. 📊 Today's key release Core PCE and Q1 GDP Final print today, with PCE expected near 3.8% year-over-year - nearly double the Fed's target. Any surprise will move USD pairs, gold and risk assets sharply into month-end close. The setup for fast moves is in place. Risk management is the trade. 💼 Trade it with NordFX 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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Markets Do Not Pause Just Because the News Looks Quiet 📊 Today is Memorial Day - U.S. markets are officially closed. Quiet on the surface. But underneath? Anything but. The Dow closed Friday, May 22 at a record 50,579 points, rising for its third positive week out of four. The S&P 500 posted its eighth consecutive weekly gain - the longest winning streak since 2023. 📈 That rally was built on three simultaneous pressure points: Iran ceasefire optimism, strong corporate earnings, and a new Fed Chair stepping in. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair at the White House on May 22, replacing Jerome Powell. He inherits a complex situation: 30-year Treasury yields briefly hit 5.2% this week, the highest level since 2007, driven by persistent inflation fears tied to the Middle East conflict. The Q1 2026 PCE price index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - came in at 4.5% annualized, more than double the 2% target. The Iran situation remains unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz - through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows - is still a flashpoint. Brent crude is holding above $100 per barrel. Any breakdown in talks could reignite the energy shock. Any deal could change the inflation picture fast. This week brings the data that shapes the second half of 2026: 🗓️ Consumer Confidence - Tuesday Marvell, Salesforce, Dell, Costco earnings - mid-week Q1 GDP second estimate + April PCE inflation - Thursday BofA forecasts April PCE up 0.4% month-over-month. A hot print keeps rate hikes on the table. A soft one shifts the narrative. Quiet days are not neutral days. They are the days positions are built. 🎯 Start trading with NordFX: 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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🪙 NordFX Crypto Digest | May 28 – June 3, 2026

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📅 NordFX Guide: How to Prepare a Trading Plan for a High-Impact June Calendar June 2026 is one of the most event-dense months of the year - and markets are already on edge. Middle East conflict pushing energy prices higher, US inflation at 3.8% YoY, and trade policy in constant legal flux. Volatility is already here. Here's how to plan around the biggest dates. 👇 🔴 Mark These Dates June 5 - US Non-Farm Payrolls. 115K jobs added in April, unemployment at 4.3%. A soft print could hit the dollar hard. June 10 - US CPI. Inflation at 3.8% YoY lands just one week before the Fed. A surprise in either direction will be explosive. June 11 - ECB decision. After holding at 2.0% in April, markets price a 25bps hike driven by rising energy inflation. EUR pairs front and center. June 16-17 - FOMC decision. Fed held at 3.50-3.75% since March. A projection meeting - the dot plot alone will move markets. June 18 - Bank of England. Rates at 3.75%, UK CPI at 3.3%. Watch GBP. June 16 - Bank of Japan. JPY volatile around any policy signal - dangerous overlap with the FOMC. 📊 The Bigger Picture The US 15% global tariff expires July 24 and is already in court. June is when markets start pricing what comes next. The Middle East conflict continues disrupting energy supply. Every trade now carries a geopolitical premium. ✅ Your 5-Step June Plan Load the calendar - six potential market-movers in under three weeks. Pick your pairs - USD, EUR, GBP, JPY all have direct catalysts this month. Set pre-event rules - trade the release or wait for the dust to settle? Size down before high-impact events unless your strategy is news-based. Review each outcome - the gap between forecast and actual is where opportunity lives. June rewards traders who plan. Don't wing it. 💡 Open your account and trade the volatility 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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🌐 NordFX | CRYPTO WEEKLY | May 20–27, 2026 ₿ BTC hit a 2-month low of $74,500 before recovering to ~$77K. Bitcoin ETFs bled $1.32B in their worst weekly outflow of 2026, driven by rising Treasury yields killing rate-cut hopes. 🏛 US lawmakers introduced the bipartisan ARMA bill on May 21 to build a 1-million-BTC Strategic Reserve, locked for 20 years. Washington means business. 🚀 SpaceX dropped a bombshell in its May 20 IPO filing: 18,712 BTC worth ~$1.4B on the balance sheet. Blockchain.com also filed for a US IPO the same week. ⟠ BitMine snapped up 111,942 ETH last week, now controlling ~4.5% of all ETH supply. Tom Lee calls it "Crypto Spring." ✦ XRP Ledger v3.1.3 went live on May 27 with key fixes for NFTs, vaults and lending. Miss the update, lose network access. 😄 Fun fact: A coin called USELESS, which promised investors literally nothing, still holds a $32M market cap. Honesty pays. 🤷 ⚠️ Not investment advice. www.nordfx.com

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