🌅 Morning Wrap (19.11.2024)

NORDFX Global

19 Nov 2024, 16:12 · Views 112

📈 Asia in the Green

Asian markets rallied with tech stocks leading gains, riding on Wall Street’s overnight strength:

🇯🇵 Nikkei: +0.5%

🇰🇷 KOSPI: +0.2%

🇦🇺 ASX 200: +1.1%

🇨🇳 CSI 300 remained flat ahead of the LPR decision.

💻 US & Europe Futures

🇺🇸 US futures steady as markets await NVIDIA earnings:

S&P 500 futures +0.15%.

🇪🇺 European futures hint at a positive open: STOXX 50 +0.55%.

💵 Dollar & Rates

Dollar 🛑 retreats from one-year highs as markets digest Trump policy expectations.

Treasury yields ease: 10-year at 4.408%.

Fed rate cut? Markets see a 58.4% chance in December.

🇦🇺 RBA Minutes

RBA remains cautious on inflation, leaning towards restrictive policy. Cash rate likely unchanged till mid-2025. AUD steady at $0.6504.

💹 Japanese Yen Watch

JPY supported at 154.47 after Finance Minister's warning on volatility. BOJ’s dovish stance holds firm despite weak economic data.

₿ Bitcoin on the Move

Bitcoin trades at 💰 $91,713 after MicroStrategy’s record $4.6B purchase of 51,780 coins (avg: $88,627). Trump optimism cools as markets await policy clarity.

🛢️ Oil & Gold

Oil: Brent +$73.45, WTI +$69.31 on production halts in Norway and Kazakhstan.

Gold: 📈 $2,622 as dollar weakens and tensions rise following US-authorized strikes into Russia.

🗳️ Trump’s Treasury Hunt

Marc Rowan (Apollo CEO) and Kevin Warsh (ex-Fed Governor) emerge as Treasury picks after John Paulson exits.

📊 Goldman’s S&P Prediction

Goldman joins Morgan Stanley: S&P 500 target 6,500 by end-2025, expecting 11% earnings growth. Warns of tariff and yield risks.

🏘️ China’s Property Push

Beijing and Shanghai roll out tax breaks to stimulate housing, including VAT exemptions for resales held over 2 years. More cities likely to follow.

🌏 IMF's Asia Warning

IMF flags risks from US-China tariff disputes but holds 2024 Asia growth forecast at 4.6%.

👷 Boeing Job Cuts

Boeing to lay off 2,500 workers in US hubs, part of broader 17,000 job reductions.

📅 What to Watch Today:

🇪🇺 Eurozone October CPI (final).

🇺🇸 US housing data.

🗣️ Speeches: Fed’s Schmid, BOE’s Bailey, and ECB’s Elderson.

Stay tuned! 📢

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𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗵𝗶𝘁 $𝟰,𝟰𝟭𝟳. 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁. Six weeks of sideways chop, then a clean breakout above $4,220 resistance. Gold's now swinging between $4,416 and $4,495 today alone, holding well above its 50-day average, with momentum firm but not stretched. 🟡 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘁'𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz have stalled again, oil is climbing, and Wednesday's US inflation print could decide whether the Fed holds or cuts. That's three catalysts stacked in one week. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘆 This is exactly the kind of setup where reacting late costs you the move. A pending order lets you pick your level now, say a pullback toward $4,220 or a breakout continuation above $4,495, and let the market trigger it for you. 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘁 Open a NordFX demo, place one pending order at the level you're watching, and see how it plays out through Wednesday's CPI release. 📈 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... Trading involves risk. Practice on demo before going live.

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𝗢𝗠𝗖 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿, 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗬𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗖𝗹𝘂𝗲𝘀 – 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 All eyes turn to Wednesday, August 19, when the Fed drops the minutes from its July 28-29 meeting. 📊 The vote itself was already a story: 9-3 to hold rates at 3.50-3.75%, with three members pushing for an immediate hike. That's a rare hawkish split, and the minutes should reveal how wide the crack really is. 💵 𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿: DXY is hovering near 99.5, still soft after weaker US data. Bigger test ahead: new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote on August 28. He's dialed back forward guidance, so this speech could move markets more than any single data print. 🥇 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱: XAU/USD is flirting with $4,400, up sharply this month. Fading hike bets, an unresolved Strait of Hormuz standoff and general political turbulence keep safe-haven demand strong. A hawkish surprise in the minutes could spark a quick dip, but the bigger trend still favors gold. 💴 𝗬𝗲𝗻: USD/JPY sits around 159, having given back roughly half the gains from the record joint US-Japan intervention in July. A soft Japanese Q2 GDP print isn't helping. A push toward 160 without fresh intervention would raise fresh questions about Tokyo's resolve. 🎯 Light on data, heavy on signals: minutes, retail earnings (Home Depot, Walmart, Target), and Friday's flash PMIs all set the tone before the September 15-16 FOMC decision.

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Economic Calendar August 24-28, 2026

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🌅 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 📉 Asia trades mixed: Nikkei 225 extends losses for a third session (~65,200, –0.5%), KOSPI slides ~3% as Samsung and SK Hynix drag ahead of Nvidia's earnings, while Hang Seng holds roughly flat near 25,545. 📊 Wall Street closed mixed Monday: Dow +0.26%, S&P 500 –0.28%, Nasdaq –0.76% – chip stocks led the pullback. 💵 EUR/USD steady near 1.1664 as the dollar holds its ground. 🛢️ Oil ticks higher – WTI $85.36 (+0.4%), Brent $90.75 (+0.4%). 🥇 Gold climbs to $4,727, closing in on record highs on safe-haven demand. ₿ Bitcoin holds near $80,000, buoyed by strong ETF inflows. All eyes now on Nvidia's earnings and US PCE inflation data Wednesday, and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Friday. Trade the moves with NordFX! 🚀

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🌅 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟳, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 🌏 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 up 0.4% near 69,012 as tech leads (Kioxia, SoftBank); Q2 GDP came in softer than expected 🇭🇰 Hang Seng opened higher (~+0.7%–1.3%), though broader Asia-ex-Japan shares are flat overall 🇰🇷 South Korea closed for Liberation Day 🇨🇳 Eyes on China's July industrial output and retail sales data, due later today 💵 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘅 EUR/USD holding 1.1600–1.1650, eyeing the 1.1610 zone USD/JPY steady near 158–159, yen firm on BoJ hike bets and a softer dollar Dollar broadly weaker Monday after last week's soft US data 🛢 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 Brent crude steady near $88.50/bbl, WTI ~$82.10 – Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed Gold firm near $4,390/oz, holding gains as Fed hike bets ease 📉 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗽 Oil posted sizeable gains last week on stalled Hormuz talks; Iran urged the US to "accept defeat" over the weekend 11 killed in Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon Saturday, adding to regional risk Fed September hike odds near 30%, down sharply from over 65% two weeks ago 📅 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆'𝘀 𝗙𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀 China activity data, US housing/industrial figures, and headlines from the Strait of Hormuz remain the key drivers Trade safe! 📊 #NordFX #ForexNews #MorningUpdate

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