Current trend

In October, the NZD/USD pair declined due to the American dollar strengthening, but the movement stopped at 0.5950, as investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions before the publication of the US labor market statistics.

Nonfarm payrolls are due today at 14:30 (GMT 2), which may decrease from 254.0K to 106.0K, putting pressure on the American dollar. However, if the value is higher than the forecast by 50.0K or more, then a breakdown of 0.5950 will follow, and the asset may reach the August low of 0.5860. The unemployment rate in October, according to preliminary estimates, will remain at 4.1%.

The long-term reversed downwards after a breakdown of the September low of 0.6120 and a decrease to 0.5950. The price may test the area of ​​0.5860 and the October 2023 low of 0.5790. If the quotes remain above the support level of 0.5950, long positions with the target at 0.6120 are relevant. Then, a restoration of the long-term upward trend and an increase to the September high of 0.6380 are likely. The RSI indicator (14) has come as close as possible to the oversold zone, which increases the possibility of an upward correction in the medium term.

Within the medium-term downward trend, in mid-October, the quotes broke zone 2 (0.6099–0.6085) and reached zone 3 (0.5959–0.5945) this week. After consolidation below, a decline to zone 4 (0.5819–0.5805) is likely. Otherwise, a correction pattern may be implemented towards the key resistance area of ​​0.6094–0.6080, where short positions with the target at the weekly low of 0.5945 are relevant.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.6120, 0.6220, 0.6300.

Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5860, 0.5790.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 0.5950, with the target at 0.6120 and stop loss 0.5900. Implementation period: 7–9 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.5900, with the target at 0.5860 and stop loss 0.5935.