Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar rises as solid labor data diminishes RBA rate cuts

National Australia Bank revised its projection for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in a note this week. "We have brought forward our expectations for the timing of rate cuts, now anticipating the first cut in February 2025, instead of May," the bank stated. They continue to foresee a gradual pace of cuts, with rates expected to decrease to 3.10% by early 2026.

US Retail Sales rose by 0.4% month-over-month in September, surpassing both the 0.1% gain recorded in August and market expectations of a 0.3% increase. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims fell by 19,000 during the week ending October 11, the largest decline in three months. The total number of claims dropped to 241,000, significantly below the anticipated 260,000.

The seasonally adjusted Employment Change in Australia surged by 64.1K in September, bringing the total employment to a record 14.52 million. This far surpassed market expectations of a 25.0K increase, following a revised rise of 42.6K in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1% in September, matching the revised figure for August and coming in lower than the anticipated 4.2%.

On Wednesday, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter reiterated the central bank's commitment to curbing inflation, emphasizing that although inflation expectations remain well-anchored, ongoing price pressures continue to present significant challenges.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic stated that he anticipates just one more interest rate cut of 25 basis points this year, as reflected in his projections during last month's US central bank meeting. "The median forecast was for 50 basis points beyond the 50 basis points already implemented in September. My projection was for an additional 25 basis points," he said, according to Reuters.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari reassured markets late on Monday by reaffirming the Fed's data-dependent approach. Kashkari reiterated familiar Fed policymaker views on the strength of the US economy, noting continued easing of inflationary pressures and a robust labor market, despite a recent uptick in the overall unemployment rate, per Reuters.