Australian Dollar appreciates due to fading likelihood of RBA rate cuts, awaits China GDP

The Australian Dollar rises as the solid employment data diminish the odds of RBA’s rate cuts in 2024.

China’s Gross Domestic Product is expected to report 4.5% growth YoY in Q3, compared to the previous 4.7% reading.

The US Dollar received support from a solid US Retail Sales report, fueling the likelihood of the Fed delivering nominal rate cuts.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Friday. This upside of the AUD/USD pair is largely due to stronger-than-expected domestic employment data released on Thursday, which led traders to scale back expectations of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate cut this year.

The Australian Dollar may have also gained support from confirmation of rate cuts in China, its largest trading partner. China's Industrial Commercial Bank, Bank of Communications, and China Merchants Bank announced a 25 basis point cut. Lower interest rates are expected to stimulate domestic economic activity, which in turn could boost demand for Australian exports to China.

The US Dollar (USD) edges lower as Treasury yields decline. However, the Greenback reached a two-month high of 103.87 on Thursday, supported by a solid US Retail Sales report, which fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may implement nominal rate cuts.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 90.8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November and a 74.0% chance of another cut in December.