• Mexican Peso recovers after USD/MXN hit 20.00; gains over 0.19%.
• Peso faces additional pressure from former President Trump’s tariff threat on Mexican-made cars, triggering a sell-off.
• IMF lowers Mexico’s 2024 growth forecast to 1.5%, highlighting a deeper slowdown and rising inflation risks.

The Mexican Peso appreciated late in the North American session, slashing four days of losses against the Greenback. US Retail Sales and jobs data fared better than economists expected, bolstering the US Dollar, though the Peso recovered some ground.  At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.89, below its opening price by 0.15%.

Earlier, during the North American session, the USD/MXN cleared the psychological 20.00 figure after the US Department of Commerce revealed solid Retail Sales in September. At the same time, the US Department of Labor announced last week that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits was below projections.

After the data, the buck extended its gains, as shown by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the American currency against another six, gains 0.26% to 103.80, slightly above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 103.77.

Despite that, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is heavily expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at the November meeting. Odds remained at 90.9%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool data.

Recently released data showed that US Industrial Production tumbled, blamed on the Boeing strike and two hurricanes.

Across the south of the border, Mexico’s economic docket remained absent. However, former President Donald Trump's announcement that he would impose a 200% tariff on cars manufactured in Mexico once he wins the election triggered a Peso sell-off.

In its latest report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected the Mexican economy to grow 1.5% in 2024, lower than in its previous forecast. The IMF estimates a deeper economic slowdown for the next year, estimating 1.3% GDP growth, and foresees inflation moving toward the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico)3% goal.