- According to a Reuters poll, a slim majority of economists expect that the Bank of Japan will forgo raising interest rates again this year amid uncertainty over the new political leadership's preference for the monetary policy.
- Data published by Japan's Ministry of Finance on Thursday showed that total exports in September dropped 1.7% from a year earlier as compared to a revised 5.5% rise in the previous month and missing consensus estimates.
- Soft demand in China – Japan's biggest trading partner – and a slowing US growth, along with the JPY's recent appreciation following the BoJ’s unexpected interest rate hike in late July, pushed down the value of exports.
- This could further complicate the BoJ's rate-hike plans and cap any meaningful appreciating move for the JPY, though persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East might offer support.
- The United Nations (UN) said that Israeli forces have fired at its peacekeeping position, forcibly entered a base, stopped a critical logistical movement, and injured more than a dozen of its troops in southern Lebanon.
- According to a source familiar with the matter, Israel’s plan of a counterstrike in response to Iran’s October 1 attack is ready, raising the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East and a broader regional war.
- The US Dollar rose to its highest level since early August on Wednesday amid firming expectations for a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve and bets for a 25 basis points rate cut at the November meeting.
- The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond dropped to over a one-week low on Wednesday, albeit it defends the 4.0% threshold, which favors the USD bulls and should offer support to the USD/JPY pair.
- Traders look to the US economic docket – featuring the release of monthly Retail Sales, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – for some impetus later during the North American session.
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