The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is caught in a bit of a sideways trap in the first week of October as geopolitical concerns weigh on risk appetite. Investors are jostling for position ahead of Friday’s bumper print of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs data with future rate moves from the Federal Reserve (Fed) potentially riding on labor figures.
US ADP Employment Change figures for September rose higher and faster than most market participants expected, clocking in at 143K net new job additions over the month. Median markets forecasts called for a jump to 120K compared to August’s revised print of 103K. Despite the firm upshot in advance jobs numbers, investors will be waiting for the final call on official advance figures on NFP Friday.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that September’s outsized 50 bps rate cut shouldn’t be a signal that further extreme rate moves are on the way. The Fed’s own SEP outlook on rate cuts sees only another 50 bps in total over the next few meetings. Rate markets have fallen in-line with the Fed’s own outlook for the most part; according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders see 60% odds of a follow-up 25 bps rate cut in November, with the remaining 40% still hoping for a repeat jumbo cut for 50 bps.
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