| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 144.80 |
| Take Profit | 149.30 |
| Stop Loss | 143.80 |
| Key Levels | 138.00, 142.20, 144.80, 149.30 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 142.20 |
| Take Profit | 138.00 |
| Stop Loss | 143.40 |
| Key Levels | 138.00, 142.20, 144.80, 149.30 |
Current trend
The USD/JPY pair is correcting in a sideways trend at 143.75. After a decline, the yen is stabilizing against positive macroeconomic data.
Thus, in August, the unemployment rate fell from 2.7% to 2.5% against the forecast of 2.6%, while the ratio of open vacancies to applicants fell from 1.24 points to 1.23 points, reflecting a high employment rate of vacant jobs. The Tankan index of capital expenditures of large enterprises fell from 11.1% to 10.6%, the business activity indicator remained at 14.0 points, and the sentiment indicator of large manufacturers – was at 13.0 points. The Bank of Japan, in turn, is considering further tightening monetary policy. However, analysts are assessing the scenario with an increase in the interest rate at the next meeting as unlikely due to insufficient inflation. Thus, in September, the consumer price index in the Tokyo region changed from 2.6% to 2.2%, and the value excluding food and energy for the same period remained at 1.6%.
The American dollar is moving in a correction trend, trading at 100.8 points in the USDX. Yesterday, it grew after the publication of a positive August JOLTS report, where the number of open vacancies increased from 7.711M to 8.040M, above the expected 7.640M. Despite the recovery in the employment sector, the September manufacturing PMI adjusted from 47.9 points to 47.3 points, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI remained at 47.2 points relative to the calculations of 47.6 points.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting upwards within the downward channel of 145.00–138.00.
Technical indicators are slowing down the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming ascending bars in the sell zone.
Resistance levels: 144.80, 149.30.
Support levels: 142.20, 138.00.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 144.80, with the target at 149.30. Stop loss — 143.80. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 142.20, with the target at 138.00. Stop loss — 143.40.
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