- Mexican political turmoil eases as market participants prepare for the change of president on October 1, a bank holiday in Mexico.
- Banxico is expected to lower borrowing costs by 175 bps toward the end of 2025, according to the swaps markets.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, also known as Chicago PMI, improved for the third straight month, rising by 46.6 and overshadowing estimates and August’s data.
- The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report was mixed. In August, headline inflation rose by 2.2% YoY, down from 2.5% and a tenth lower than the consensus estimate.
- Conversely, as expected, the core PCE modestly increased from 2.6% to 2.7% for the same period.
- Market participants have put the odds of a 25 bps cut at 56.4%, up from 46.7% a day ago. The chances for a larger 50 bps cut stand at 43.6%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
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