| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 8315.0 |
| Take Profit | 8500.0 |
| Stop Loss | 8260.0 |
| Key Levels | 7995.0, 8190.0, 8315.0, 8500.0 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 8190.0 |
| Take Profit | 7995.0 |
| Stop Loss | 8300.0 |
| Key Levels | 7995.0, 8190.0, 8315.0, 8500.0 |
Current trend
The ASX 200 index is showing an upward trend around 8255.0, which is caused by the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to continue implementing restrictive monetary policy.
So, at the regulator’s meeting last week, officials decided to keep the interest rate at 4.35%, explaining this by the fact that inflation is still significantly above the target range of 2.0–3.0% at 3.9%, and a significant slowdown in the indicator is not expected until mid-2026. In addition, conditions in the labor market remain uncertain: the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 3.5% in mid-2023.
Another restraining factor for the index growth is the upward correction in the bond market: the rate on 10-year debt securities rose to 3.997%, the maximum since September 2, on 20-year ones — to 4.578% from 4.543%, and on 30-year ones — to 4.612% from 4.554%.
The leaders of growth in the index are Fletcher Building Ltd. ( 6.40%), Mineral Resources Ltd. ( 5.84%), Pibara Minerals Ltd. ( 3.48%), Nuix Ltd. ( 3.46%).
Among the leaders of decline are Resolute Mining Ltd. (˗3.55%), Ramelius Resources Ltd. (˗3.52%), Gold Road Resources Ltd. (˗2.87%).
Support and resistance
On the D1 chart, the price is holding below the resistance line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 8330.0–7750.0, confidently approaching it.
Technical indicators have long since reversed and maintain a stable buy signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming correction bars, remaining above the transition level.
Support levels: 8190.0, 7995.0.
Resistance levels: 8315.0, 8500.0.
Trading tips
If the asset continues to grow and the price consolidates above the resistance level of 8315.0, buy positions with a target of 8500.0 and a stop-loss of 8260.0 may be opened. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
In case of a reversal and continued decline of the asset with consolidation below the 8190.0 mark, sell positions with a target of 7995.0 will be relevant. Stop loss – 8300.0.
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