Current trend

After the publication of poor macroeconomic data, the GBP/USD pair corrected from 1.3400 to 1.3319 but the overall trend remains upward. Thus, in September, the composite PMI fell from 53.8 points to 52.9 points, and the services PMI from 53.7 points to 52.8 points compared to the forecast of 53.5, preventing the quotes from breaking through the resistance level of 1.3400.

The correction may continue today if the US gross domestic product (GDP) justifies preliminary estimates. The final data is due at 14:30 (GMT 2), and analysts expect the indicator to be 3.0% QoQ. This will mean that the US Fed will be able to avoid a hard landing of the economy, which will strengthen the American currency and justify the recent interest rate cut by 50 basis points. The trading session will end with a series of speeches by the regulator’s representatives, including its head Jerome Powell. Markets hope to hear comments on the monetary policy prospects, counting on two more reductions in the cost of borrowing before the end of the year.

In the long term, the trading instrument is moving in an upward trend. In September, it reached the resistance level of 1.3400, where a correction to the support level of 1.3215 began. After a reversal, long positions, with the targets of 1.3400 and 1.3630 are relevant. However, in the event of a breakout, the negative dynamics may continue to the trend line of 1.3005. The RSI indicator (14) has reached the overbought area, forming a divergence pattern with the price chart, which indicates a continuation of the downward correction.

The medium-term trend is upward. In September, the quotes overcame zone 3 (1.3242–1.3211), holding for three and a half weeks, and headed towards zone 4 (1.3546–1.3515). At the moment, a correction is developing, within which a test of the trend support area of ​​1.3125–1.3095 is likely, where long positions, with the targets of 1.3262 and 1.3430 (the high of the current week) are relevant.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3630, 1.3730.

Support levels: 1.3215, 1.3005, 1.2857.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 1.3215, with the target at 1.3400 and stop loss 1.3150. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 1.3150, with the target at 1.3005 and stop loss 1.3220.