Current trend

Amid unstable dynamics of the American dollar, the NZD/USD pair continues its moderate upward dynamics near 0.6245.

New Zealand’s macroeconomic statistics failed to support the national currency. In August, exports changed from 6.09B New Zealand dollars to 4.97B New Zealand dollars, and imports from 7.10B New Zealand dollars to 7.17B New Zealand dollars. As a result, the trade deficit increased from –1.016B New Zealand dollars to –2.203B New Zealand dollars MoM and from –9.350B New Zealand dollars to –9.290B New Zealand dollars YoY. Analysts at New Zealand’s National Statistics Office (Stats.nz) note that the largest declines in goods sold were in the categories of edible offal (–19.0%), lamb (–27.0%), and beef (–15.0%), while the leaders in growth were fruit ( 53.0%).

The American dollar is holding at 100.40 in the USDX. The volatility after the US Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points has subsided but discussions about the impact of the measures taken continue. Thus, experts believe the regulator’s officials may make another significant borrowing cost adjustment at the next meeting since the economic growth forecasts remain restrained. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Instrument, the probability of reaching 4.25% is 50.2%, as well as consolidation around 4.50–4.75%, while the possibility of maintaining it at the previous level is not considered.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is correcting, trying to consolidate above the resistance line of the downward channel 0.6210–0.5870.

Technical indicators are maintaining the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming ascending bars above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.6270, 0.6370.

Support levels: 0.6210, 0.6130.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.6270, with the target at 0.6370. Stop loss — 0.6230. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 0.6210, with the target at 0.6130. Stop loss — 0.6250.