Current trend

The AUD/USD pair is showing confident growth, developing a fairly confident "bullish" momentum that continues in the short-term and ultra-short-term. Quotes are testing 0.6800 for a breakout, above which the "bulls" failed to consolidate the day before. The instrument was supported by the US Federal Reserve's decision to cut the interest rate by 50 basis points for the first time since 2020. The regulator also reduced its inflation forecasts, which increased expectations of new adjustments to borrowing costs before the end of this year, although the intense market reaction turned out to be temporary, since investors had already factored the results of the September meeting into their quotes. Today at 14:30 (GMT 2), the US will present statistics on jobless claims: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended September 13 is expected to remain at the previous level of 230.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims (for the week ended September 6) will probably remain at the level of 1.85 million.

In turn, the Australian dollar is strengthening its positions against the backdrop of the publication of the August labor market report: the Employment Change added 47.5 thousand after increasing by 48.9 thousand in the previous month, while analysts expected 25.0 thousand, the Full-Time Employment decreased by 3.1 thousand after increasing by 64.8 thousand, while Part-Time Employment added 50.6 thousand after –15.8 thousand in the previous month, and the Unemployment Rate, as expected, remained at 4.2%.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has launched a three-year program to develop a wholesale digital currency after examining the limited benefits and potential challenges of a retail CBDC that would be used by the general public. The project aims to explore new areas of application, operating models and the impact of the instrument on the country's financial system. Australian regulator believes it could significantly improve the efficiency, transparency and resilience of wholesale markets by reducing operational risks and cutting costs associated with intermediation.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are trying to reverse horisontally. The price range remains virtually unchanged, limiting the development of "bullish" sentiment in the short and ultra-short term. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, retreating from its highs, is trying to reverse downwards, indicating risks of overbought Australian dollar in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6825, 0.6850, 0.6900.

Support levels: 0.6775, 0.6750, 0.6732, 0.6700.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 0.6800 with the target of 0.6850. Stop-loss — 0.6800. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 0.6800 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.6775 may become a signal for opening of short positions with the target at 0.6732. Stop-loss — 0.6800.