| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 73.70 |
| Take Profit | 77.00 |
| Stop Loss | 71.00 |
| Key Levels | 69.40, 72.00, 73.70, 77.00 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 72.00 |
| Take Profit | 69.40 |
| Stop Loss | 73.00 |
| Key Levels | 69.40, 72.00, 73.70, 77.00 |
Current trend
Prices for the benchmark Brent Crude Oil grade are correcting in an upward trend, holding below 73.00 with the support of fundamental factors.
Thus, one of the main reasons for the negative dynamics, experts previously called the decrease in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, as a result of the simultaneous remote explosion of pagers used by members of the Palestinian movement Hezbollah, more than 3.0K people were injured, and representatives of Lebanon have already blamed the Israeli authorities for the incident. Analysts fear that this could lead to an armed response and have already called on the local population to remain near bomb shelters. Thus, the escalation of the conflict may once again act as a driver of oil prices, which are still under pressure and low demand for contracts: according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), the daily trading volume is maintained within the range of 0.980–1.200M transactions, below the average values of 1.23–1.26M in August. The option position, often a signal of significant fluctuations, has also decreased. Yesterday, the figure reached 158.5K, less than 310.0–315.0K at the beginning of the month.
Today, a tender will be held, within which the US government intends to sign a contract for the purchase of up to 6.0M barrels of oil for the strategic reserve with delivery in the first months of 2025, which will be the largest one-time replenishment since 2022. The contractual status of the purchased oil will almost reach annual volumes since the US is now implementing purchase deals signed at the beginning of the summer.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within the correction channel 80.00–68.00.
Technical indicators are slowing down the sell signal: fast EMAS of the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO histogram has formed several ascending bars in the sell zone.
Resistance levels: 73.70, 77.00.
Support levels: 72.00, 69.40.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened after the price consolidates above 73.70, with the target at 77.00. Stop loss — 71.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened after the price consolidates below 72.00, with the target at 69.40. Stop loss — 73.00.
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