- The Pound Sterling jumps to near 1.3160 against the US Dollar in Monday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair gains as investors expect that the BoE’s policy-easing cycle will be less aggressive than that from the Fed.
- The Fed is almost certain to begin cutting interest rates on Wednesday. However, traders remain split about whether the rate cut size will be of 25 or 50 basis points (bps). According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 50 bps to 4.75%-5.00% in September has increased sharply to 61% from 30% a week ago.
- Market speculation for the Fed's outsize interest rate cut has been strengthened after the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) report for August, which showed that the headline producer inflation decelerated at a faster-than-expected pace to 1.7%. Some media reports have also contributed to expectations that the Fed could opt for a large cut.
- Before the Fed policy announcement, investors will focus on the United States (US) Retail Sales data for August, which will be published on Tuesday. Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have grown by 0.2%, slower than 1.0% increase seen in July.
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