- The Pound Sterling strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s European trading hours. The GBP/USD pair posts a fresh weekly high above 1.2800 as the British currency capitalizes on the upbeat labor market data. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains sideways, with investors focusing on the United States (US) CPI data for July, which will be published on Wednesday.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, steadies above 103.00. The US CPI report is expected to show that monthly headline and core inflation rose by 0.2%. Annual headline and core CPI are estimated to have decelerated by one-tenth to 2.9% and 3.2%, respectively.
- An expected decline in US price pressures would boost expectations of a big interest rate cut announcement by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders see a 49.5% chance that interest rates will be reduced by 50 basis points (bps) in September, which is significantly down from the 68% recorded a week ago.
- Market speculation about a big Fed rate cut in September has diminished due to easing US recession fears, which were prompted by a consistent increase in the Unemployment Rate and slowing labor demand in July.
- According to an aggregate recession probability model by UBS Global Research, the odds of the US economy entering a recession have dropped to 53% in July from 60% recorded a few months ago.
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