- A global sell-off in the equity markets – triggered by fears of the US tipping into recession – seems to have eased amid some bargain buying and exert some pressure on the safe-haven Gold price on Wednesday.
- The US Treasury bond yields build on the overnight advance, which was their biggest rise since early June – and lend support to the US Dollar, which is further seen undermining the non-yielding yellow metal.
- Government data released on Tuesday showed that the US trade deficit fell by 2.5%, to $73.1 billion in June from $75.0 billion in May owing to a 1.5% rise in exports of aircraft and US-produced oil and gas.
- The markets are pricing in a 100% chance that the Federal Reserve will start lowering borrowing costs at the upcoming policy meeting in September and a near 70% probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut.
- This, in turn, should keep a lid on the US bond yields and the USD, which, along with geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, might act as a tailwind for the XAU/USD.
- Lebanese group Hezbollah launched a series of drone and rocket attacks against Israel on Tuesday in retaliation to Israel’s reported killings of a top Hezbollah commander and Hamas leader last week.
- The market might now move into a typical pattern of consolidation in the absence of any relevant macro data from the US and await the next major fundamental catalyst before placing fresh directional bets
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