The PCE report drops this Friday, June 28 at 8:30 a.m. EDT, and here’s what you need to know:
🟢 PCE Price Index is expected to stay flat in May (after a 0.26% rise in April). This flatlining suggests stable consumer prices, potentially calming market fears of runaway inflation.
🟢 Core PCE Price Index (excludes food & energy) is forecasted to rise by 0.10% in May (after a 0.25% increase in April). A smaller increase in core prices indicates controlled underlying inflation, which might reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates.
Year-over-year changes:
🟢 PCE Price Index: Anticipated to rise by 2.6% in May (down from 2.7% in April). A slight dip in annual inflation could be seen as a positive sign for the economy, potentially boosting market confidence.
🟢 Core PCE Price Index: Expected to rise by 2.6% in May (forecast) compared to 2.8% in April (previous). Lower year-over-year core inflation may signal that the economy is stabilizing, influencing trading strategies as investors adjust to a potentially less aggressive stance from the Fed on rate increases.
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