Downside momentum has proven resilient in industrial metals, despite lingering hopes of new Chinese stimulus as our gauge of commodity demand continues to weaken amid a precarious global macro landscape, TDS commodity strategists note.

Copper is flat, other metals to slide lower

“Top Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) traders have liquidated their Copper length and are now holding a fairly flat position, highlighting those on the ground in the Middle Kingdom may not be buying into the stimulus talk just yet.”

“Elsewhere, AUM for base metal specific ETFs have also notably declined, while money manager positioning is also coming off the euphoric highs for the red metal, and there could still be additional downside in the near-term as bloated positions continue to unwind.”

“For now, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) positions remain safe with a large margin of safety before the next selling trigger at $9,104/t. Elsewhere, Aluminum prices are in the crosshairs with CTA selling triggers sitting at the $2,400/t level, while Zinc and Lead could also be at risk of selling.”