- Mexican Core CPI in April increased by 0.21% MoM, below the expected 0.24% and significantly lower than the previous month's increase of 0.44%. Meanwhile, headline CPI moderated to 0.20%, slightly above the forecast of 0.19% but below the prior month's 0.29%.
- On an annual basis, underlying inflation rose by 4.37%, below estimates of 4.40% and March’s 4.55%. Headline inflation ticked up to 4.65%, up from 4.42%, exceeding forecasts of 4.63%.
- Most bank analysts predict that Banxico will keep interest rates steady with a unanimous decision expected from the Governing Council. However, future meetings are anticipated to be more contentious, potentially leading to divided votes. This expectation arises from comments by two Deputy Governors, Irene Espinosa and Jonathan Heath, who have stated that inflation is still elevated, necessitating that interest rates stay put.
- US Department of Labor revealed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 4 increased by 231K, above estimates of 210K, up from the previous week's 209K.
- US labor market continues to cool. April’s Nonfarm Payrolls and the release of the latest unemployment claims data can put pressure on Fed officials, who acknowledged that risks to achieving its dual mandate on employment and inflation “moved toward better balance over the past year.”
- Data from the futures market see odds for a quarter percentage point Fed rate cut in September at 86%, versus 55% ahead of last week’s FOMC decision.
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