- Last week, Banxico’s April poll showed that private economists estimate inflation to end the year at 4.2% in 2024, underlying prices at 4.1%, and the economy to grow by 2.25%. Regarding the USD/MXN, analysts revised their projections downward from 18.10 to 17.
- Mexico’s economic calendar will feature the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, estimated at 0.18% MoM, below March’s reading. In the twelve months to April, the CPI is foreseen climbing from 4.42% to 4.63%.
- Most bank analysts predict that Banxico will keep interest rates steady with a unanimous decision expected from the Governing Council. However, future meetings are anticipated to be more contentious, potentially leading to divided votes. This expectation arises from comments by two Deputy Governors, Irene Espinosa and Jonathan Heath, who have stated that inflation is still elevated, necessitating that interest rates stay at higher levels.
- The softer-than-expected US jobs data has heightened the likelihood that the Fed may reduce interest rates later in the year. April,Nonfarm Payrolls showed an addition of only 175,000 workers, falling short of expectations and significantly below March's revised figure of 315,000.
- Fed officials acknowledged that risks to achieving its dual mandate on employment and inflation “moved toward better balance over the past year,” which signals that if labor market data is weak, it could pave the way for cutting rates.
- Data from the futures market see odds for a quarter percentage point Fed rate cut in September at 86%, versus 55% ahead of last week’sFOMC decision.
면책 조항: 본 게시글에 표현된 견해는 전적으로 작성자의 견해이며 Followme의 공식 입장을 대변하지 않습니다. Followme는 제공된 정보의 정확성, 완전성 또는 신뢰성에 대해 책임을 지지 않으며, 서면으로 명시적으로 언급되지 않는 한 해당 내용을 기반으로 취해진 어떠한 조치에 대해서도 책임을 지지 않습니다.
이 글이 마음에 드시나요? 작성자에게 팁을 보내 감사의 마음을 전하세요.
