While giving a virtual guest lecture at the University of Stanford, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane noted that while inflation has declined at a faster pace than the ECB had initially expected, policy transmission continues to lag, and tightening effects from previous rate increases continue to unfold.
Key highlights:
The ECB is not pre-committing to any particular rate path.
The ECB will continue to follow a data-dependent approach.
Expectations of future inflation continue to normalize, and leaving nominal rates unchanged implies a mechanical increase in real rates.
Policy rates will stay restrictive for as long as needed.
Inflation has declined more quickly than expected.
Wage growth is moderating, but remains elevated.
The next phase of the disinflation process likely more gradual.
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