United States of America

USD is moderately strengthening against JPY but is declining against EUR and GBP.

The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting ends today; the probability of maintaining the key rate at 5.25–5.50% is currently estimated by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool at 98.9%. Some experts are even confident that an adjustment in borrowing costs will not occur until fall, given the Conference Board's report on the consumer confidence index, which fell to 97.0 points in April from 103.1 points earlier, reaching the July low of last year. However, today market participants will monitor the accompanying statements of the financial authorities and, in particular, the rhetoric of the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, who may hint about the likely timing of a change in the monetary rate.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against GBP, JPY, and USD.

Investors remain focused on the publication of April data on inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) of the Eurozone countries for the first quarter. The consumer price index (CPI) in April increased by 0.6% after growing by 0.8% earlier, and YoY remained at 2.4%, while the basic indicator decreased to 0.7% from 1.1% previously and from 2.9% to 2.7% YoY. The German economy added 0.2% from -0.5% in the previous period. Against this background, the Eurozone's consolidated GDP indicator increased by 0.3% MoM and from 0.1% to 0.4% YoY.

United Kingdom

GBP has ambiguous dynamics against JPY but is weakening against EUR and USD.

Weak macroeconomic statistics put pressure on the pound: according to the April report of the British Nationwide Building Society, the housing price index decreased by 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2%, and in annual terms adjusted to 0.6% from 1. 6% earlier, also being below the preliminary estimates of 1.2%. A negative trend is also observed in business activity: in April, the Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.3 points to 49.1 points, however, being better than the forecast of 48.7 points.

Japan

JPY continues to decline against its main competitors – EUR, GBP, and USD.

The Bank of Japan's revised current account balance data was released today and has attracted a lot of attention due to recent sharp fluctuations in the yen. With a high degree of probability, we can say that the Japanese regulator carried out a foreign exchange intervention, the volume of which amounted to about 5.0 trillion yen. This sum is derived from the difference between the previous balance of ˗2.05 trillion yen and the new balance of -7.56 trillion. This foreign exchange transaction became one of the largest in the history of the Bank of Japan, second only to the 2022 record of 5.62 trillion yen.

Australia

AUD is weakening against EUR and GBP but strengthening against JPY and USD.

Today, April data on the construction activity index from the Australian Industry Group (AiG) was published: the indicator accelerated the negative dynamics from ˗12.9 points to ˗25.6 points, and the manufacturing activity index – from ˗7.0 points to ˗13 ,9 points. However, the Manufacturing PMI increased from 47.3 points to 49.6 points, however, being lower than the 49.9 points predicted by analysts.

Oil

Oil prices are showing downward dynamics today, continuing yesterday's trend.

Quotes are being adjusted after the publication of a report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), which recorded an increase in oil production in February from 12.58 million barrels to 13.15 million barrels per day, and exports from 4.05 million barrels to 4.66 million barrels per day. The asset was also put under pressure by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which inventories rose by 4.906 million barrels after a decline of 3.230 million barrels a week earlier. Later, the EIA report on oil reserves will be published: for now, analysts expect their reduction by 2,300 million barrels per day, but the forecast will probably turn out to be incorrect, given the statistics already presented by the API.