Scenario
Timeframe	Weekly
Recommendation	SELL STOP
Entry Point	0.5860
Take Profit	0.5770
Stop Loss	0.5930
Key Levels	0.5770, 0.5860, 0.5920, 0.6030

Alternative scenario
Recommendation	BUY STOP
Entry Point	0.5920
Take Profit	0.6030
Stop Loss	0.5850
Key Levels	0.5770, 0.5860, 0.5920, 0.6030

Current trend

Against the stabilization of the American dollar, the NZD/USD pair is trading near 0.5884, without any support from the poor macroeconomic statistics.

Thus, the New Zealand consumer price index for the twelve months to March 2024 increased by 4.0%, lower than for December 2023 (4.7%). Although inflation hit its June 2021 low in the first quarter, it is still above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target range of 1.0–3.0%. The largest increase in the annual indicator was due to rental prices, which added 4.7%, and the new houses construction price increased by 3.3%. The Q1 indicator increased by 0.6%, and the basis for the dynamics was the March tobacco products price growth of 6.5%.

The American dollar returned to 106.00 in USDX amid the initial jobless claims, amounting to 212.0K like a week earlier, better than the predicted increase of 215.0K. However, the total claims reached 1.812M compared to 1.810M earlier, and the average claims – 214.50K as of last week. In addition, the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Philadelphia manufacturing PMI increased from 3.2 points to 15.5 points.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is declining close to the support line of the downward corridor with dynamic boundaries of 0.5840–0.6050.

Technical indicators are strengthening the sell signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, keeping a wide range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is forming corrective bars below the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.5920, 0.6030.

Support levels: 0.5860, 0.5770.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.5860, with the target at 0.5770. Stop loss – 0.5930. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.5920, with the target at 0.6030. Stop loss – 0.5850.

NZD/USD: INFLATION IN NEW ZEALAND EXCEEDS THE REGULATOR’S TARGET LEVEL OF 1.0–3.0%