The United States of America

USD is strengthening against JPY, weakening against EUR and has ambiguous dynamics against GBP.

In March, the change in the number of employees from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company amounted to 184.0K from 155.0K previously, exceeding forecasts of 148.0K and renewing the high since June. In addition, average wage growth reached 5.1%, well above the inflation target, reflecting continued risks of further price increases in the US economy. However, yesterday, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Chair Loretta Mester and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly called for a three-fold cut in interest rates over the year, although the latter noted that amid a strong labor market and a significant economic recovery, there was no urgent need for monetary policy adjustment.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against USD, JPY, and GBP.

In March, the preliminary consumer price index adjusted from 0.6% to 0.8% MoM, and the core index from 0.7% to 1.1%. However, the indicator decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% YoY instead of the predicted 2.5%, the base value – from 3.1% to 2.9% YoY compared to estimates of 3.0%, and the February unemployment rate was 6.5%, although experts expected 6.4%. Overall, inflation pressures are steadily weakening, and the labor market is not strengthening, raising the prospect of an early move to a dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB). Thus, the head of the National Bank of Austria, Robert Holzmann, said that he did not object to adjusting interest rates in June if macroeconomic data favors it but emphasized that the European regulator should not be too far ahead of the American one in this matter.

The United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against JPY, weakening against EUR and has ambiguous dynamics against USD.

Due to a lack of significant economic releases, currency movements are due to external factors. Retail sales at UK supermarkets increased by 5.4% in the four weeks to the end of February, driven by cheaper food prices and competition among retailers, according to leading consumer intelligence company NIQ. However, the organization’s experts note that overall household spending remains under pressure as consumer inflation in the country is still high. On Thursday, investors expect the publication of March data on the UK’s key services PMI. According to preliminary estimates, the indicator will decrease from 53.8 points to 53.4 points, supporting the national currency.

Japan

JPY is weakening against EUR, GBP, and USD.

In March, the service PMI increased from 52.9 points to 54.1 points, less than expected at 54.9 points, and the composite PMI increased from 50.6 points to 51.7 points against expectations of 52.3 points. In general, the indicators show positive dynamics, reflecting the economic recovery, against which Bank of Japan officials may continue to tighten monetary policy. However, for now, most experts believe that the regulator will refrain from raising interest rates again soon and will resume it in the middle or second half of the year.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against JPY, weakening against EUR and has ambiguous dynamics against GBP and USD.

According to American International Group Inc. (AIG), the March manufacturing activity index adjusted from –12.6 points to –7.0 points, and the indicator in the construction sector – from –18.4 points to –12.9 points: despite the slowdown in negative dynamics, the number is pessimistic the number of motivated businesspersons in these industries remains significant. On Thursday, investors expect the publication of the March services PMI, which is expected to increase from 53.1 points to 53.5 points, as well as February statistics on retail sales, the volume of which could grow by 0.3%, supporting the national currency.

Oil

Oil prices continue to rise.

Positive dynamics are developing against geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a reduction in the US oil reserves. Currently, investors fear Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israeli infrastructure, which will increase the risk of disruptions in the supply of Middle Eastern oil to the market. Yesterday’s data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded a decrease in oil reserves by 2.286M barrels, which exceeded the 2.000M barrels expected by experts. According to preliminary estimates, a similar report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) will reflect an adjustment of the indicator by 0.300M barrels.