- The stronger US inflation data fuelled speculations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated, which, in turn, fails to assist the non-yielding Gold price to build on Monday's bounce from over a one-week low.
- Markets are now pricing in less than three 25 basis point rate cuts this year and about a 51% chance that the Fed will begin the rate-cutting cycle at the June meeting, down sharply from expectations at the start of the year.
- Expectations that the Fed will stick to the higher-for-longer interest rates narrative push the yield on benchmark 10-year US government bond to a three-week high, underpinning the US Dollar and capping the commodity.
- The prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, along with the unrest in the Middle East, might continue to offer some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD and help limit deeper losses ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting starting today.
- Ukraine stepped up drone strikes on Russian oil refineries last week, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed plans to push into Gaza's Rafah enclave, contributing to a climate of uncertainty.
- The focus, meanwhile, will be on whether Fed policymakers change their projections, or dot plots, for the economy and rate cuts for this year and the next two, which will determine the near-term trajectory for the XAU/USD.
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