BOJ PREVIEW: AN ACTUAL PIVOT AWAY FROM NIRP CAN EASILY HAUL THE USD/JPY TOWARDS 145.00 – TDS

Speculation around a BoJ monetary policy shift has been building. Economists at TD Securities bring forward their call for an April hike to March.

BoJ to hike next week

Following the positive round of wage increases announced this week and Rengo's announcement today delivering a 5% increase in first round wage negotiations, we believe the BoJ has the information it needs to hike at next week's meeting. Accordingly, we bring forward our call for an April hike to March.

We expect USD/JPY's reaction function to be asymmetric here with a bigger move on delivering a hike (USD/JPY towards 145.00) than on a disappointment (towards 150.00) as even in the latter the BoJ can try to sound hawkish and lay the grounds for an April pivot.