Economists at ING analyze EUR/USD outlook going into the March ECB meeting.

EUR/USD should remain a Dollar story

The possibility that the ECB discusses the conditions for starting to ease policy implies that the balance of risks is slightly titled to the downside for the Euro this week. 

In EUR/USD, we could see the Dollar leg taking over again rapidly. Markets may be reluctant to take aggressive idiosyncratic EUR positions (in both directions) before seeing the Eurozone’s wage and inflation data in March/April, leaving US figures the key catalyst of any material swing in the pair. 

US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday may well end up having a larger impact on EUR/USD than the ECB announcement.