Economists at TD Securities discuss the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision and their implications for the EUR/USD pair.
The ECB delivers another hold with no major changes to the press statement. Forecasts are roughly unchanged, though with small downside revisions to inflation in 2024. Lagarde notes that inflation developments are promising, and while wage growth is sticky, there are early signs that it is coming down. She remains vague on the timing of the first cut – consistent with Q2 cuts. EUR/USD 0.15%.
President Lagarde notes that inflation is coming down, but points to the strong Feb data as a caution against being complacent. Moreover, Lagarde continues to emphasise the importance of wages and suggests that the Q1 wage data, released after the April meeting, will be key to determining when it is reasonable to start easing policy. While Lagarde does not explicitly push back against an April cut, she says that cuts are some ways off. EUR/USD 0.70%.
The ECB delivers another hold and makes no major changes to the press statement. Forecasts are revised down, particularly for 2024 inflation, but also for inflation in 2025, with headline inflation now expected to be below target in 2025 and 2026. Lagarde says that while wage growth is a key focus, it's already showing early signs of cooling, and is a lagging indicator, and inflation remains the ECB's sole target. While Lagarde does not want to specify when the first cut is on the table, she makes clear that April is definitely a live meeting. EUR/USD -0.60%.
면책 조항: 본 게시글에 표현된 견해는 전적으로 작성자의 견해이며 Followme의 공식 입장을 대변하지 않습니다. Followme는 제공된 정보의 정확성, 완전성 또는 신뢰성에 대해 책임을 지지 않으며, 서면으로 명시적으로 언급되지 않는 한 해당 내용을 기반으로 취해진 어떠한 조치에 대해서도 책임을 지지 않습니다.
