USD/CAD: DOWNSIDE RISKS FOR LOONIE AS THE BOC MAY INTRODUCE SOME REFERENCE TO MONETARY EASING – ING

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces monetary policy today, without releasing new economic projections. Economists at ING analyze USD/CAD outlook ahead of the meeting.

Cautious about a rebound in CAD in the near term

There is a risk on the downside for CAD as the BoC may introduce some reference to monetary easing today, but the overall message should remain cautious. 

The rebound in Fed rate expectations has spilled into the CAD curve, which now prices in 90 bps of easing this year. There is probably little incentive for the BoC to drive rate expectations lower at this stage, and they may be happy to make this an in-between meeting without much market impact.

We remain cautious about a rebound in CAD in the near term, although a broad-based Dollar decline from the second quarter should take USD/CAD to the 1.3000 handle by year-end.