The United States of America

USD is weakening against EUR, JPY, and GBP.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing PMI fell from 53.4 points to 52.6 points, compared with forecasts of 53.0 points in February. The services sector is recovering more slowly than before, allowing US Federal Reserve officials to begin cutting interest rates. Today, February employment data from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company was published, reflecting an increase from 111.0K to 140.0K, less than preliminary estimates of 149.0K, which is another signal for the regulator that the timing of monetary policy adjustment is approaching. At 17:00 (GMT 2), investors expect the head of the department, Jerome Powell, to speak in Congress. He will inform legislators about the situation in the economy and the regulator’s further actions. Most likely, the official will confirm the possibility of a limited reduction in borrowing costs during the year but will note that there is no need to rush into this since it is necessary to obtain confirmation of a stable slowdown in consumer price growth to 2.0%.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against GBP and USD but has ambiguous dynamics against JPY.

German goods exports rose 6.3%, well above the 1.5% forecast, and imports rose 3.6% from the 1.8% forecast, bringing the trade surplus to 27.5B euros. Supplies to the EU countries (8.9%) and China (7.8%) increased the most, and total exports outside the European bloc increased by 3.1%. Experts note that these data give hope for the recovery of the German economy, which went into recession at the end of last year. Meanwhile, two leading German research organizations have published revised estimates for this year's gross domestic product (GDP). The Institute for Economic Research (IFO) has lowered its forecast from 0.7% to 0.2%, and the Kiel Institute (IfW) has lowered its forecast from 0.7% to 0.2%. 0.9% from 0.1%, justifying the adjustment by poor domestic consumption and continued negative business sentiment.

The United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against USD but weakening against EUR and has ambiguous dynamics against JPY.

The construction PMI rose from 48.8 points to 49.7 points compared to the expected 49.0 points in February: the slowdown in the sector has almost stopped, supporting the British economy. Today, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will present the UK spring budget, which he described as a “budget for long-term growth.” The official announced 1.8B pounds worth of incentives and subsidies, as well as 360.0M pounds in funding for research and development in the life sciences, automotive, and aerospace manufacturing sectors. In addition, the government will support British households through partial tax cuts and stimulate economic growth to ensure their well-being improves. In particular, the document maintains a temporary reduction in duties on fuel and alcohol. Citing estimates from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), Hunt said inflation should fall below 2.0% over the next few months, with gross domestic product (GDP) expected to grow by 0.8% this year.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against USD and has ambiguous dynamics against EUR and GBP.

Due to a lack of significant economic releases, currency movements are due to external factors. According to Reuters, Bank of Japan officials may soon revise estimates of consumption and industrial production downwards, which will change the timing of the withdrawal of the current loose monetary policy. According to the organization’s sources, consumption in the national economy remains weak, while production problems persist, especially in the automotive sector. However, regulators say the Japanese economy will continue to recover moderately.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against EUR, JPY, GBP, and USD.

Q4 gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% QoQ, beating forecasts, and contracted 2.1% to 1.5%, beating the 1.4% expected, as household incomes and consumer spending fell. Government data showed families are increasing spending on electricity, rent, food, and health care but cutting back on cafes and restaurants, as well as new cars and clothing. The statistics confirm the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) switching to the “dovish” rhetoric. However, experts do not expect the officials to take serious steps in this area until the autumn.

Oil

Oil prices resumed growth.

The quotes are supported by data on fuel reserves from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which reflected an increase in the indicator by 0.423M barrels, significantly lower than the predicted 2.600M barrels. In addition, investors hope that US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking in Congress today, will confirm the regulator’s intention to begin the decrease of the interest rates within a year or hint at the timing of the start of easing monetary policy, which could put pressure on the American currency. Today, a report from the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be published: oil inventories could rise by 2.400M barrels, putting pressure on the quotes.