Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar consolidates amid a flat equity Market

Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar consolidates amid a flat equity market

• Australian Current Account Balance rose to 11.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, against the expected 5.6 billion and 1.3 billion prior.
• ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index declined to 81.0, from the previous reading of 83.2. This latest figure represents the lowest level recorded thus far in 2024.
• Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation for February showed a year-over-year rise of 4.0%, lower than the previous rise of 4.6%.
• Australian Building Permits (MoM) declined by 1.0% in January, contrary to the expected rise of 4.0%. Nevertheless, this figure represented an improvement from the previous decrease of 10.1%.
• Australia’s TD Securities Inflation (MoM) decreased by 0.1% in February, lower than the previous rise of 0.3%.
• Australian Bureau of Statistics released Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ), rising by 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023 against the expected 1.8% increase and the previous decrease of 1.6%.
• Australian Building Permits (YoY) rose by 10% in January, swinging from the previous decline of 24%.
• Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI indicated a slight improvement in Australia's manufacturing sector, with the February reading rising to 47.8 from 47.7 in the previous period.
• The seasonally adjusted Australian Retail Sales (MoM) grew by 1.1% in January, lower than expected 1.5% but swinging from the previous decline of 2.7%.
• Australian Private Capital Expenditure improved by 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023, from the expected 0.5% and 0.6% prior.
• According to Matthew De Pasquale, an Economist at Judo Bank, the February Services PMI suggests that the sector has achieved a soft landing in 2023 and is now witnessing a resurgence in activity in early 2024. While the resilience in business activity bodes well for economic growth and employment, it casts doubt on the likelihood of inflation returning to target within the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecast timeline.
• China's National People's Congress (NPC) spokesman Lou Qinjian shared with the news media that Congress will hold its annual meeting in Beijing from March 5 to March 11. Lou stated that the government “will make new laws to deepen economic reform including financial institutional reform to promote private companies.” Moreover, the Premier of the People's Republic of China (PBoC), Li Qiang is expected to reveal China's economic growth target of around 5% at the session on Tuesday.
• Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic made headlines on Monday, expressing uncertainty about achieving a soft landing. He does not foresee consecutive rate cuts when they commence but still expects two 25-basis point rate cuts in 2024. While inflation is expected to return to the 2% target, Bostic believes it is premature to declare victory.
• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 3.0% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in March, while the likelihood of cuts in May and June stands at 21.8% and 50.9%, respectively.
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) dropped to 47.8 from 49.1, surprisingly missing the market expectation 49.5.
• The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 76.9 in February, falling below the market expectation of remaining unchanged at 79.6.
• US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index grew by 2.4% YoY in January, against the 2.6% prior, in line with the market expectation. The index increased by 0.3% month-over-month, against 0.1% prior.