The United States of America

USD is strengthening against EUR, JPY, and GBP.

The second preliminary report on Q4 gross domestic product (GDP) showed a rise of 3.2%, slightly less than the 3.3% forecast but enough to keep risks of higher inflation amid shipping difficulties in the Red Sea. On Thursday, data on the core price index of personal consumption expenditures will be published, which may significantly affect further decisions of the monetary authorities: according to forecasts, the January indicator will decrease from 2.9% to 2.8% YoY, but if the value remains at the same level or increases, US Fed officials will have an argument in favor of maintaining high interest rates longer, which will strengthen the American dollar against its main competitors.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against JPY and USD but strengthening against GBP.

In February, a report assessing EU consumer and business confidence reflected a decrease from 96.1 points to 95.4 points instead of the expected increase to 96.7 points, the consumer confidence index increased from –16.1 points to –15.5 points, remaining in the negative zone, sentiment in the service sector decreased from 8.4 points to 6.0 points, although analysts expected an increase to 9.0 points, and manufacturing sentiment from –9.3 points to –9.5 points. Thus, European households and businesses remain under pressure from the economic slowdown, high prices, and tight monetary policies and expect European Central Bank (ECB) officials to switch to the “dovish” rhetoric. Despite this, today, the head of the National Bank of Slovakia, Peter Kazimir, said that the regulator recognized progress in the fight against inflation in the region but must postpone the reduction of interest rates until at least June. A similar opinion was expressed by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, who noted that to adjust borrowing costs, more data is needed to confirm a stable decline in consumer prices.

The United Kingdom

GBP is weakening against EUR, JPY, and USD.

Due to a lack of significant economic releases, currency movements are due to external factors. Yesterday, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England Dave Ramsden said that cost pressures in the British economy remained too high, so more macroeconomic signals about a slowdown in inflation towards the target of 2.0% were needed to make further monetary decisions. Most experts expect the cost of borrowing in the UK to decline in the summer.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against EUR and GBP but weakening against USD.

On Thursday, investors expect the release of preliminary January industrial production data, which is forecast to contract 6.7% after rising 1.4% in December, and retail sales statistics, which could slow growth from 2.4% to 2.0%. The implementation of these estimates will confirm the unstable state of the national economy and the likelihood that the recession will continue and the yen will be under pressure again.

Australia

AUD is weakening against GBP, EUR, USD, and JPY.

The January consumer price index, published today, remained unchanged at 3.4%, although analysts had expected an increase to 3.6%, and the truncated figure fell from 4.0% to 3.8%. The statistics convince investors that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials will no longer raise interest rates, and their next step will be to ease monetary policy. Currently, most experts expect the regulator to switch to the “dovish” rhetoric no earlier than August.

Oil

The morning decline in oil prices gave way to growth, regaining lost ground.

The market is in a state of uncertainty: prices are under pressure by the American Petroleum Institute (API) report, which showed an increase of oil inventories by 8.428M barrels, while most experts expected a reduction due to increased demand from oil refineries. On the other hand, the downward correction of the asset is hampered by data on US gross domestic product (GDP). The Q4 national economy expanded by 3.2%, slightly less than forecasts of 3.3%, reinforcing expectations of growth in oil consumption. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of statistics from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA). According to preliminary estimates, oil reserves will add 3.100M barrels, putting additional pressure on the oil quotes.